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April 22, 2005
Small tools and household appliances, Friday, April 22, 2005, 3:32 PM
After the Maytag article went out, Josh wrote in to ask: "Do you think Whirlpool's decent report was an anomaly, or is Maytag an early warning? Thanks."
Actually, judging from his previous questions, I think Josh must be an investment pro, and therefore probably has some well formed opinions that I'm sure we'd all like to hear. But, to the point, there is a world of difference between Whirlpool Corp (NYSE: WHR), which is in the Cara Global Best 100, and Maytag (NYSE: MYG), which is in a dire situation since the passing of our favorite repairman.
Whirlpool is financially stronger, and actually makes money. In fact over the past five years, the average ROE is well over 20 (20.9) and in the past 12 months ROE has come in at an outstanding 25.3. This is one very well managed company.
One factor I like to look at is a stock's lowest PE over the past five years, and see how it compares to the present PE. In the case of WHR, the PE is presently about 10.4, while the low point over five years is 6.1. That tells me a couple things: (1) the stock is reasonably priced, (2) the company knows how to make money, and (3) there is some fundamental support against falling prices.
Technically, the indicators " which are just indicators " tell me that, like MYG, the stock is likely to fall a little before it ought to be bought.
Fundamentally, Whirlpool has five years of falling margins, but the good news is that, whereas Maytag (Mayday, mayday! " that's good Pisani) has margins that have fallen below water, the Whirlpool margins are still quite strong, and the declines are fairly modest.
In any event, these are manufacturers that America needs. As and when the consumer is back into a spending mode, I believe that the long-term trading picture will be ok for both stocks. As an investor, however, only WHR is a potential core portfolio holding.
Another sub-industry that I like to look at when considering these household appliance manufacturer stocks is the small tools manufacturer stocks. The latter are classified in the GICS sector 20 versus the MYG/WHR in sector 25.
The small tools companies I look at are: Black & Decker (NYSE: BDK), Snap-on Tools (NYSE: SNA), Stanley Works (NYSE: SNA) and Makita (NDQ: MKTAY), which is a Japanese-based manufacturer.
Of this group, the clear favorites in my book are BDK and SWK. I do not like SNA and MKTAY, although, being a racing fan, I have to admit that anything that's ok by Snap-on is ok by me. :-)
The MKTAY chart shows a great run-up, but how can you like a company that barely makes a return on equity or assets? The Makita 5-year average ROE is 2.3 pct (4.0 pct in past year), and the 5-year average ROA is 1.5 pct (2.8 pct in past year). That is a pretty dull tool as far as I'm concerned.
The Black & Decker profitability, however, is outstanding, with a 5-year average ROE of 30.8 (29.3 in the past 12 months). How can anybody not include that kind of performance in their personal Global Best 100 list. But, SWK also makes my list (average 5-year ROE of 21.9, and 12-month ROE of 30.0).
Besides, the present PE for both BDK and SWK is 8.3, so both companies are fairly priced. Along with SNA, they have enjoyed a relatively strong past month or so in the stock market. That's because investors have been jumping into these stocks while the GICS sector 20 Industrials have looked a little shaky for the aerospace and defense stocks.
But, traders be wary as the recent short-term technical buy on these stocks is what I call a "high risk" one. Should the broad market for U.S. equities come down more, as I suspect, in the short-term, all of these stocks will likely come off a bit.
Here is a long-term chart. Please note that WHR has been marking time in its technical pattern. That long base could break out to very significant long-term growth should the economy not falter.
But, to finally answer Josh, I think the Whirlpool report is an anomaly, caused by superior management, and that Maytag's report is merely a reflection of that company's management having difficulty with bad economic data and challenging business conditions.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on April 22, 2005 03:32:22 PM | Category: 20 Industrials , 25 Cons Discretionary , Cara Today in the Market

Bill,
Thank you for your kind words. I think you are spot on regarding Maytag. They are simply outclassed in an industry that has shifted away from simple white goods into more sophisticated and creative products.
For large appliances, Maytag faces not only traditional competitors Whirlpool and GE, but a large push from LG and Samsung (full disclosure: I am long one stainless steel Samsung refrigerator). On the low end, Haier seems to be taking market share. Anecdotally, I didnt find the Maytag/Amana refrigerators I looked at to be compelling on either a price or features basis.
Same thing in the vacuum business, with Dyson on the high end and Dirt Devil on the low end.
Posted by: Josh Silverman at April 22, 2005 5:13 PM [link]