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April 25, 2005

Is Ford a buy?, Mon., April 25, 2005, 11:38 AM

Ford Motor management (NYSE: F) has guided us to a $6 billion profit for 2006, down from their recent estimate of $7 billion. With 1.83 billion shares outstanding, these earnings would be about $3.27 per share. The stock is trading today at $9.85. That would be about 3.0 times Ford management's estimate of future earnings. So, maybe F is in a buying zone here.

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I pass this along because when I talked to my Dad today, who, while barely able to speak, could still tell me "Buy Ford" when I told him the price of the stock.

You see, my Dad has traded Ford over the years " about one buy and one sell every four years or so " and he always made money. Today, he was saying something along the lines that Ford management is making the picture look worse than it really is, which is something they always do when the economy gets in rough shape and selling cars is a little harder than usual.

But I guess when you can buy and sell F about 12 to 15 times over the years and always make money, like Dad, you have a good story to tell " even if the words are a little hard to decipher these days, and the story a little dubious.

Still, he makes a good point about value at a reasonable price.

As I see it, Ford management believe in the company apparently more than equity investors. That's a good time to start accumulating positions.

Ford's financials are not in as bad shape as people believe.

Today the January 2006 Ford call options with a $10 strike are trading $1.05-$1.15.

Just for the sake of argument, let's say Ford has understated the prospects for the global economy, and their company earnings next year are ($5 B divided by 1.83 B shares=) $2.75, and that Ford trades at a reasonable 6 times earnings. That would take the stock to $16.50.

From today's stock price of $9.85, that would result in a gain of 67 pct in less than six months.

But, if you paid $1.00 for the Jan-06 call option, it would be worth, at a minimum $6.50, and your gain would be ($650-$100=) $550 for every contract. That would be a 550 pct gain in less than six months.

There are opportunities in the market to make solid gains in your portfolio, and F may be one of them.

You might want to buy a little now, and then a little more if the stock moves up or down by $1, and again if the stock moves up or down by $2.

If the stock moves up to say $12 soon, your $1 call option would be in a solid profit position. On the other hand, if it drops to $8, and you have averaged down, then you will be well positioned.

You could also write a January 2006 $7.50 put for $0.55, which would lower your cost base further -- either by the premium on the short put, or by a net purchase cost of $6.95, if the stock is put to you at $7.50.

In the interests of full disclosure, F is not in the Cara Global Best 100 companies list, like all other auto manufacturers, but I am long one Taurus.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on April 25, 2005 11:35:30 AM | Category: 25 Cons Discretionary

Discourse

No concern over Fords debt load?

Posted by: LearnFromMistakes at April 25, 2005 10:17 PM [link]