The last time there was a 206 point Dow gain was on June 16, 2003. That was a very impressive day because the percentage up move was even larger than today's.

But, what happened after that?

I strongly suspect that what happened in June 2003 will happen in the next few days and weeks. In other words, it's not Dow, Wow, but quite possibly, Bow Wow!

On June 16, 2003, the Dow jumped exactly 206 points. Exactly seven trading sessions later, the Dow had fallen 312 points, to 9011.53 on June 25.

And by the end of the month, on June 30, the Dow closed at 8,985.44. Bow Wow! People had turned to talking about the Dogs of the Dow.

Ask yourself what truly happened today to cause a 206 Dow gain?

There was no big move in the interest rate market. There was no big move in the forex market, or the gold market. There was no big move in the oil market. There was no big move in economic data.

There was, however, a lot of talk about GOOG (now $214 in the after market), and "pie-in-the-sky" stuff like that, but when I see PEs in the stratosphere, I lose interest.

I did see a few solid companies today on the loser's list with share prices down more than a few percent, so I have to ask myself what truly is happening in this market. Why, for example, would Student Loan Marketing (NYSE: SLM) be down 5.9 pct, or MBNA (NYSE: KRB) be down 16.6 pct, or Bearing Point, the former KPMG Consulting (NYSE: BE) be down 32.1 pct on the day?

I think there are still many investors who are worried (quite worried!) about the prospects of rising interest rates, and an economic slowdown. And, I for one don't think we've seen a bottom in this equity market cycle.

In fact, with PPI/CPI/Beige Book indicating that an inflation problem is truly at hand, and that interest rates still have a way to go on the upside, I think I'll wait to see at what point the long bonds start to fall in price. Something strange is going on in the capital markets, and I suspect that the bond market (enthusiasm) could possibly be a cover for large capital groups to be selling into equity market rallies.

Yes, I'll wait for a couple days before deciding what to do next.