But, (1) if I'm not available to write for several hours " during a 206-point rally in the Dow " it's not because I'm hiding, but simply because I have other obligations (than to write a free blog), and (2) my objective is not to pick tops and bottoms, but simply to tell you what I think is happening in capital markets, and, more importantly, to tell you why I think like I do regarding each particular point I make so that, as the experiences build, each of you can possibly learn ways to improve your own track record.

If you don't think I'm being helpful, then please don't read the blog. So far, however, I'm running at a rate of 999 out of 1000 of positive comments or e-mails. I've had maybe 4 or 5 readers out of about 6,000 e-mails or comments in the past year who have taken jabs at me.

One in the affirmative that I received this morning came from Jay, who wrote: "I really enjoy your web site and have learned a lot from you. Thanks. I was doing some research on the Financial Picks web site that is linked from your ("Technical" section on top banner). You have probably already seen this but, if you haven't: http://www.sec.gov/litigation/admin/34-44881.htm Keep up your good work. /Jay"

I hadn't seen the piece on FinancialPicks.com, where the SEC commenced administrative proceedings against that entity back in 2001, but I do know that anybody who claims to sell to investors, via MLM, a technical analysis system that reportedly had a 35 times ROCI in something like three years is somebody I wouldn't waste my time on.

If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.

I have received a lot of mail asking about Canadian income trusts that offer an annual ROCI of over 20 pct. Since I have no vested interest in anything I comment upon in this blog, I am free to say that I believe that it sounds too good to be true. That's not to say that certain Canadian income trusts have not performed at that level for a while " they have " but is the investor return really much more than a return of capital?

Are the returns assured for multiple years? If so, then why are 99+ pct of professional money managers unable to obtain long-term ROCI that is above 20 pct?

It is not my place to pick on the Canadian income trusts, or the American newsletter writers who use them to promote subscriptions. If I had some relevant experience with Canadian income trusts, I would have passed it on by now. What I can say, however, is that three unrelated persons I know personally, who are extremely successful investors, say they think there will be a number of failures in these particular securities in the next couple years.

Again, that's not to say, they will all fail, or that one or more of them will not continue to offer 20+ pct annual returns. It is just to say that investors in those securities ought to be considering all the angles.

And investors in the U.S. equity market ought to be questioning why the bond market is flying at a time the Fed is tightening and Talking Heads are telling you the economic picture is rosy.

Moreover, investors who don't believe there is a housing market bubble in certain U.S. cities ought to be wondering why tract housing that is selling for $1.5 million - $2.0 million (according to Herb Greenberg, who is a credible fellow) doesn't constitute a bubble in those cities.

Of course there are some good values in the equity market. That doesn't mean to say that the U.S. equity market represents good value. And as I pointed out in my last blog, just because the Dow has a 206-point rally, it doesn't mean that a recent bearish trend will not continue, as it did in June 2003 after the previous 206-point Dow rally.