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April 8, 2005
Cloudy Constellation, Fri., April 8, 2005, 2:16 PM
CNBC's Cramer has been touting Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ) on his interesting MadMoney program. I'll take that trade; I say sell it!
Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ) $58.34
International producer and marketer of beverage alcohol brands, including wine, spirits and imported beer categories. Recently bought Mondavi.
Diageo (NYSE: DEO) $59.59
International supplier of branded food and beverage products with operations in four principal segments: spirits and wine, packaged food, beer and quick service restaurants. Brands include Pillsbury, Smirnoff, Burger King, Johnnie Walker and J&B.
Let's compare these two in the GICS sector 30 (30201020):

Return On Capital Invested (5 yr avg) is 5.9 pct for STZ, but 17.1 pct for DEO.
Return On Equity (5 yr avg) is 13.0 pct for STZ, but 29.4 pct for DEO.
Dividend Yield is zero for STZ, but 2.9 pct for DEO.
Price/Earnings multiple is 21.3 for STZ, but just 13.6 for DEO.
Price to Free Cash Flow multiple is a very high 48.7 for STZ, and a still very high (but not as bad) 41.2 for DEO.
Altman's Z-ratio score (test of solvency) is 2.13 (fair) for STZ, but 2.82 (good) for DEO. Besides, Constellation had to take on a lot of new debt to acquire Mondavi.
In my view there is no comparison. Cramer is touting STZ at $58.34, and I say sell it " protect your profits and preserve capital. If you want to buy a stock in this sub-industry, go to DEO.
Diageo, in fact, makes the Cara Global Best 100. You'd have read that before except the price of the stock at $59.59, is too high.
Here's the STZ hourly data price chart. Did Cramer's fawning last evening, and the few before that, have something to do with the blip this morning? :-)

Well, it must be said that STZ is a long-term Wall Street favorite.

On the other hand, Diageo is a London UK company, and hence out of favor with American investors. Just look at the institutional following in STZ vs DEO.
But these "pro" investors are clearly reading the promotional media and not looking at the hard data, which shows the superiority of DEO.

There is a glut of wine in the world right now, and who's got the money to buy booze?
If I didn't think both STZ and DEO would come off in price in the near term, I'd take up Cramer by hedging DEO long against a STZ short.
Now, maybe I'll just short STZ.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on April 8, 2005 02:13:48 PM | Category: 30 Consumer Staples
Discourse
Agreed, Cramer is a great contra...love to fade him.
Posted by: DJ at April 9, 2005 9:54 AM [link]

Bill, STZ reported a much better than expected quarter Thursday afternoon (conf call was 4pm CST). Lots of Wall St upgrades this morning - that's what caused the "blip" up this am, not just Cramer. Having said that, I do view JJC as a contrary indicator most of the time.
Posted by: WP at April 8, 2005 2:41 PM [link]