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April 29, 2005

A Long*** future, coming shortly, Fri., April 29, 2005, 8:29 AM

A year ago today, at the annual Microsoft Windows Hardware Engineering Conference (WinHEC), Microsoft staff indicated to the OEMs in attendance that the future Windows product, named Longhorn, would need a PC with the following average features: a dual-core CPU running at 4 to 6GHz; a minimum of 2 gigs of RAM; up to a terabyte of storage; a 1 Gbit built-in, Ethernet-wired port and an 802.11g wireless link; and a graphics processor that runs three times faster than those on the market.

That was an eye opener.

Next week, professional developers who attend this annual event will be seeking further answers from Microsoft, and for sure you will be reading about it.

Based on these specs, it would be reasonable to assume that the world of personal computing " which is a pretty big world " is about to take a quantum step up. Security traders take note: nowhere in society will these changes have a bigger impact than in your world.

Firstly, there will be huge opportunities to invest in micro-cap companies that will successfully launch a host of new application products on this advanced Windows platform. Then there is also going to be a renewed focus on the major PC, software and chip manufacturers like MSFT, ORCL, INTC, AMD, and DELL.

But the best trading opportunities will be in the applications software arena, in such fields as: electronic gaming, telecommunications (video telephony and VoIP), and real-time securities trading, of those that come quickly to mind.

As I see it, Longhorn will lead to a whole new world of efficiency and productivity. For those who are down on the equity market today, I urge you to think ahead to tomorrow. And if that future is as bright as I think it will be, the equity market will soon move to new high levels.

Sometime this year, there will be a cycle bottom. It will occur as most investors are hung up on rising interest rates, mortgage costs and commodity prices, ‘twin' deficits, forex imbalances, and so forth. But the smart ones will be accumulating stocks of the highest quality companies, i.e., those with a proven management ability to grow top-line and bottom-line operating numbers through thick and thin, and who have used the past couple years to strengthen their corporate balance sheets.

That's the reason I have been busy readying the Cara Global Best 100 list of companies, which are the ones that I will be accumulating through this cycle bottom.

And, the most observant of the situational investors will be gleaning the micro-cap stocks for opportunities that will be successful spin-offs of the newest Windows product.

I believe that technically the U.S. equity market is in a secular (very long-term) bull market, because I don't believe the next cycle low will exceed the 2002-2003 7,500 of the Dow (approx) on the downside, and I believe that a new high (12,000 or more) will be reached on the upside, within two years of the cycle bottom.

Higher highs and higher lows is a definition of a bull (rising) market. And that's what I think is in evidence today.

Yes, I was concerned about a cycle high two months ago at 10,900 (approx.), but a true bear market would require that the Dow fall to a minimum of 8,200, i.e., a drop of ~25 pct, or in the extreme to 7,500 or lower, which on the basis of current fundamental analysis is possible but very unlikely.

At some point in the next five or six FOMC meetings (held every six weeks), the Fed will decide that inflation/speculation is under control, and will cease tightening, as I see it. But equity traders always jump the gun by three to six months, so it is my view that the U.S. equity market has one more cycle down, which could be tied to the USD-Yuan revaluation process, and then the next bull phase will begin.

Before that point, traders will be wisely watching for downward price spikes of stocks of the best quality companies. That is the time traders have to push themselves into action, because the opportunities will be few and the window short.

And remember that name Longhorn " the one linked to technology, and not meat products.


P.S. If there are application software developers out there who read my blog who want to send me a note as to how they see Longhorn affecting their future, I would dearly like to hear from you. This topic is going to replace last year's favorite, flash memory.

P.S. #2 I am not a fan of Microsoft or MSFT -- just so you know. MSFT is not on the Cara Global Best 100 companies list. But, being pragmatic, I think there will be small company OEMs and developers of application software that will take advantage of Longhorn in future, as I see some doing today with Apple. My interest is strictly in finding a list of potential winners for tomorrow.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on April 29, 2005 08:35:48 AM | Category: 45 Info Technology , Cara Today in the Market , Micro-cap stocks , Situational Investing

Discourse

Microsoft was a growth company when computer sales were growing rapidly. Those glory days are gone. Computer sales are in a slow growth and replacement mode. That puts a severe limit on Microsoft's prospects unless - magically - computer sales boom again.

How can Microsoft increase the number of new computer sales? Easy, release software that will obsolete existing computer hardware and then stop supporting the software that runs on those computers. After Longhorn's release Microsoft will announce that XP et. al. will no longer be supported and that upgraded Office and other products require Longhorn. QED, Micrsoft sales boom as these instantly obsolete computers are replaced with new computers running the newest Microsft products. It's the economics of broken windows, no pun intended.

Posted by: Fred at April 29, 2005 10:11 AM [link]

Hi Bill

I am an application developer and I would like to comment, as I think you are completly wrong. But not on your comments, don't wanna be in the middle of MS flame war. Send me your Email adress and you will get my opinion.

Tobias

Posted by: Tobias at April 29, 2005 10:25 AM [link]

Hi Bill-
I worked for MS for 5 years... left recently to do my own s/w consulting. Longhorn and the new SQL Server engine, Yukon should be big advances. I am always intrigued by the coming tech (and its uncertainty )of our digital age.

Some random links:

http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/8.04/joy.html

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0195136306/qid=1114789019/sr=8-1/ref=sr_8_xs_ap_i1_xgl14/103-4992978-5335068?v=glance&s=books&n=507846

http://www.marshallbrain.com/robotic-nation.htm

Posted by: MIke Wilmot at April 29, 2005 11:41 AM [link]

To add to the linkfest:

"Despite features, Longhorn unlikely to boost PC industry"
http://www.eetimes.com/news/latest/showArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=4GLZ4EFSPAIJEQSNDBESKHA?articleID=162100278

Posted by: Kaushik at April 29, 2005 5:33 PM [link]

Bill,
I have a feeling the Longhorn release will not receive such the warm reception that was afforded to previous windows releases over the years (people lining up overnight outside stores etc). IT managers are increasingly seeing the benefits in adopting open standards for new projects (whether the project is on the windows platform or not), and much more hesitant to willingly adopt systems that will lock them into forced upgrade cycles. The MS marketing machine is going to have to work double time on this one.

Dr. Dobb's Journal, a respected application developers magazine:
"Mr. Grimes' Farewell"
http://www.ddj.com/documents/s=9211/ddj050201dnn/

A bit technical, but articulates some of the problems application developers are concerned with in relation to Longhorn.

"Longhorn Beta is Disappointing"
http://it.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=05/04/26/1652253&tid=201&tid=156&tid=218
(A few interesting points of view in the comments from the tech community. sort by highest score first).

Keith

Posted by: Keith Nelson at April 30, 2005 8:59 AM [link]

"With Beta 1 of Longhorn less than two months away, Microsoft is looking at a new marketing tool to help promote its new Windows: bloggers. According to BetaNews, Microsoft's "Team 99" evangelism effort will be composed of bloggers that will become Microsoft's voice to the masses. Robert Scoble said Team 99 was once secret, but has been revived and Microsoft is now accepting nominations. It's nice to see Microsoft recognizing the power of blogs, but the move is likely going to draw accusations that Redmond is trying to buy off bloggers to hype Longhorn."

http://slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=05/05/02/1716251&tid=109&tid=149&tid=201

Posted by: Keith Nelson at May 2, 2005 5:24 PM [link]

Some "big picture" tech invest ideas: http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/pulpit20050512.html

With critical review of the ideas by tech community (sort comments by highest score first):
http://games.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=05/05/13/211203&tid=186&tid=217&tid=188&tid=1&tid=10

Posted by: Keith Nelson at May 13, 2005 7:47 PM [link]