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March 18, 2005

What's Up with GM? March 18, 2005

GM (at $28 today) is being used as a cover story for why the U.S. equity market is going south, which in my view is quite ridiculous, but nonetheless part of a ‘group-sell' that Wall Street perpetrates. (I could have said "perpetuates" but that word does not connotate something that is misleading.)

Financial TV in the U.S. is now saying (and I quote): "GM hasn't done anything positive for America for 20 years". Cramer, pardon me?

Europeans believe that Americans have this thing about them that history can be re-written -- if Americans are doing the writing. What can I say?

GM (sub-industry=25102010) reported that auto sales have collapsed in the U.S., but not elsewhere -- mostly gas-guzzling SUV's. The problem happens to be, as I have been saying, that Americans are too heavily in debt. What's left over after leaving the fuel pumps these days?

Europeans, by the way, have smaller cars, and much higher gasolene prices, but aren't screaming about either situation.

But U.S. SUV owners know that nothing has changed with the styling of these cars for the past 5 years. So, buyers don't mind waiting for the commodity price (i.e., oil) bubble to collapse and then they'll buy next year's SUV model because they still have a love affair with big cars, and theirs will be a year older.

I like what GM is doing in Canada (new $3 billion capital commitment), and in China. I like what they recently did in Europe to close off their problems there.

I like what I see with GM sales of the new Cadillac STS, which is a four-door, five-passenger luxury sedan, or luxury sports sedan, available in two trims, the V6 and the V8.

The STS V6 is equipped with a standard 3.6-liter, V6, 255-horsepower engine that gets 17 mpg in the city and 24 on the highway. The V8 has a standard 4.6-liter, V8, 320-horsepower engine that gets 17 mpg (city) / 26 (highway). A five-speed automatic transmission with overdrive is standard on both. MSRP is $40,525 for the V6 and $47,025 for the V8. According to a Cadillac spokesperson, after receiving this new model in November, dealers sold 3,240 units in December, which is outstanding. Days-to-turn for the STS is 29 nationwide, and some dealers are selling them as soon as they hit the lot.

I wrote in my blog yesterday that the market cap of GM, being just $16 billion, or a small fraction of GOOG, is a bit of a joke. There are serious issues of course, or intelligent investors would not have it down here to the $28 level.

The issues GM has with U.S. healthcare costs are faced by Boeing etc, as well, but Wall Street seems to want investors to link the healthcare issue strictly to GM, which is a crock.

Wall Street also says they don't like the GMAC financing unit, but for some reason they love GE Capital as part of GE. More nonsense.

It would not surprise me that if the price of GM goes low enough it might attract a Warren Buffett / Hathaway bid. He has the cash, and there is no other value play as big as GM.

Wall Street, which stands to make millions in M&A fees, could be helping Buffett by pushing down the price of GM stock. Do you think?

Besides, serious investors can see that the current market valuation as a percentage of the replacement cost of GM's assets (future earnings power) is the lowest ever seen.

GM's balance sheet needs to be restructured, and the unfunded pension liability is huge, but I think these are quite minor issues when compared to the value of its wealth-creating assets in a normal economic cycle, with $35 oil, and people in the U.S. working at good jobs.

What GM ought to do now is to somehow line up enough capital to buy back as much equity as possible. They ought to do more of what is being done at other Dow 30 companies (AXP, BA, CAT, DD, GE (announced), IBM, MCD, MO, MRK, PG, WMT and XOM) to pump their share prices: it's called the stock buy-back.

I made a mistake in the 4Q04 on this one, but I still believe in the company. As you know, I did not see crude oil speculators coming back to the table and driving gasoline prices to the moon in the U.S.

But, that story will soon play out.

Now that I think about this, maybe I'll write up GM as a long-term "accumulation" recommendation -- either now, or possibly after I see the fall-out in equities through 2Q05?

BCara@BillCara.com

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on March 18, 2005 12:59:58 PM | Category: 25 Cons Discretionary , U.S. Dow 30

Discourse

Bill, I assume any intelligent investor is trying to suss out what the replacement value of GM's NET assets truly is. Which leads me to, of course, the healthcare and post-retirement-benefits costs....

I can think of two differences between GM and Boeing in that regard. One is that CEO Wagoner has talked a great deal publically about this issue for his company and for the US as a whole (perhaps just talking his book, of course, but nonetheless highlighting it as an issue for the company). Second, I propose, is strategic. Perhaps a calculation is being made by Wall Street that "What is good for GM is good for America" is out and "What is good for Boeing is good for America" is in. It is not hard to paint the picture of War on Terror, national security, US aerospace giant competing against "unfair subsidies to Airbus", US manufacturer competing in a global market for aircraft, etc. etc. leading to that conclusion.

If GM disappears we will get by just fine, buying excellent Honda cars made by UAW workers in Marysville Ohio. But if Boeing were to disappear -- that would simply not be acceptable to the US federal gov't.

I personally do not find your reasons for liking GM compelling, seeing the company as inflexible, outcompeted, outinnovated, and -- in short -- in long term secular decline, only able to sell cars because of easy financing.

But we disagree. Either way, egads, leave Warren Buffett out of it! He isn't coming to the rescue on this one.

-Motts

Posted by: mottsmcg [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 19, 2005 10:19 AM [link]