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March 14, 2005

Evolving Russia

Once on a mining analyst trip, about 30 of us were feasted at a locally famous Russian Dukhabour restaurant in Grand Forks British Columbia. After the fine meal was finished the entire wait staff came over to my table and announced that I had been selected as the "best eater" of the group. If we are what we eat, and you've consumed as much perogies, kielbasa and beet borscht as me in my life (my wife is Polish), then things Russian come naturally.

As an investor, there are a lot of reasons to be bullish on Russia: commodity prices for one; sound economic fundamentals and rapid growth for two more. Here is what I have to say about Russia in the top banner section on International equities:


For all the negativity in the West about matters of Russian corruption, murderous oligarchs, dysfunctional banks, and inept civil servants, the bottom line is that in the past four years there has been (i) a remarkable success in all Russian capital markets, (ii) a period of extraordinary change in the Russian tax code and budgetary and state financial system, and (iii) several years of such enormous fiscal surpluses that the country is now a net creditor nation and holds sufficient foreign reserves to buy back 100 percent of its foreign-owned debt with enough left over to fund close to a year's imports.

Compared to Russia, it is America that is the nation in deep financial trouble.

Russia has strong economic growth (would you believe over 7 percent annually?), strong wage growth and consumer consumption, and a strong Ruble. In fact the Ruble is so strong, there is a worry among Russians that it might be upwardly valued, which would serve to put the brakes on economic growth there.

Recessions in Russia have led to a very hard landing in the past, like 1998, which was a financial disaster of the highest order. Since that financial crisis, however, fully 100 percent of Russian bonds have been paid in full.

As a result, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is pouring into many Russian sectors and industries, including oil and energy, telephones, autos, retail, high tech and aviation tech. The corporate acquisitors include the biggest ones from America, Europe, India and China.

As to its democracy, the freely elected Russian Duma is a smashing success. President Bush's GOP could only dream of holding two-thirds of the seats in Congress, as does Vladimir Putin's Unity Party in the Duma. Moreover, Bush himself would crave the popularity VVP enjoys in Russia.

Of course, having ousted oligarchs like Khordorkovsky, Potanin, and Berezovsky, who have been known to buy off Western lobbyists as well as attending to their usual fare of murder and tax evasion, which for some reason goes under the NYC radar, there is an extremely high level of negativity for Putin in the Western media.

Then again, such actions by organizations like Menatep did little to serve Russian society or the minority shareholders, from all I have read, so Putin is highly regarded in his homeland for taking those actions.

But, just like other emerging economies, like China, India and Brazil, it is quite obvious that Russia is hardly perfect. Taking Yukos away from Menatep and Khordorovsky, on a charge of tax evasion, did hurt the minority shareholders, which will take much time for reputational recovery. It will also take generations, possibly, to solve the impediments in today's civil service, banking and mortgage industries.

On other scores, like corporate governance, huge strides have been made in recent years, but improvement is still needed.

Russia has always enjoyed the geographic advantage of being the bridge between Western Europe and Asia/Pacific. For many years, the country has produced world-class math and science graduates. And for hundreds of years, Russia has managed to survive an oppressive and tragic history because of, not in spite of, its well-known social fabric and personal work ethic values.

Foreign investors today can look to the Russian Trading System (RTS Stock Exchange) as a phenomenally successful market (see the chart below) and a market that still trades at less than half the PE multiple of the S&P.


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In a secular global market trend to higher commodity prices and rising demand, Russia abounds in oil, metal, forest and agricultural commodities. These commodities, including finished products, are being exported to the world, largely to China and Japan, and the result is enormous profitability for Russian producers.

Russia is one of the world's largest oil players. It holds about 5 percent of world oil reserves and produces about ten percent of its daily oil production.


In this week's series on Russia, I will write up my findings and opinions on between 8 and 12 companies, but will focus on four of them because I selected them to the Cara List of the Global Best 100. These stocks are Vimpel (NYSE: VIP) and Mobile TeleSystems (NYSE: MBT) in Sector 50, LUKoil (OTCBB: LUKOY) in Sector 10 and MMC Norilsk (OTCBB: NILSY) in Sector 15.

In spite of their over-the-counter trading status in the U.S., LUKoil (integrated oil) and Norilsk (integrated mines and metals) are two of the largest and most powerful companies in the world.

Yes, one of the Russian oil giants Yukos may have harmed the reputation of the Russian capital markets for a time last year, but, for all the publicity its friends can churn out in the U.S., Yukos is a small blip on a huge radar screen that is Russia.

The point being that there is a sweeping range of investment opportunities in Russia. That makes my task very difficult, restricting me in this blog to make only a few points here and there. I'll start later today with a write-up on LUKoil.

Having started off by talking food, let me say that (March 14, 2005) the Russian meal is now well cooked; let it simmer before serving (unless you are a short-order cook that is).

BCara@BillCara.com

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on March 14, 2005 07:56:12 AM | Category: Russia