« ‘Soft' Tuesday, March 29, 2005, 2:32 PM | Main | AIG Ratings Downgrade, Thurs., March 31, 2005, 8:29 AM »

March 30, 2005

Claws of the Bear, Wed., March 30, 2005, 7:37 AM

Bear markets bring out the claws of people too. In fact the people-animal analogy is more apt that you might think " even on buttoned-down Wall Street.

Images of fire pots on picket lines and bricks being thrown through car and truck windows of would-be strike-breakers are more likely seen at a UAW plant than in the financial district. But don't let a few Wharton and Stanford diplomas throw you off; the in fighting is every bit as ugly.

When markets go bearish, Wall Streeters turn nasty. I have the scars to prove it.


Spoken between the women on a double date, while the men are chatting about the market: "Oh, sure, he seems like fun now, but how will he perform in a down market?"

I am reading today of the goings-on at Morgan Stanley, a firm I once worked for. In fact, I worked at Deal Witter, prior to the merger, where current Morgan Stanley Chair and CEO Phil Purcell had been the ‘chief floater' during the time I was there.

In case you are not one of the many millions who have worked for Humungous Bank & Broker, let me give you a brief insight. In the case of Morgan Stanley, probably a half million souls have been on and off the employment rolls over the years, which makes it one of the biggest of its kind. But they are all pretty much the same.

Wall Streeters in these monster firms go through a three-stage metamorphosis, starting with the employment interview where the candidate either shows a direct connection to serious capital or is shown the door.

After a few years of being given a chance to put that capital to work in the firm's money machine, the best actors are given gigs in various venues depending on how deep they bow (if you catch my drift). It's not always the brightest who secure their own piece of turf under the big tent (‘the umbrella' we called it) " but there are budget expectations and if any department fails to measure up, more than once or twice, you are encouraged to move on. And you do.

The third and final stage in one's career in these firms is to join the ranks of the floaters " those sidewalk superintendents who never seem to do much except poke their head into doorways to pass along a message from the executive committee or some other special place where nothing much other than politics is played out day and night. After a few years of trying to sleep with one eye open, these old warriors lay down their spears and depart the battlefield. Most do it grudgingly because it's never easy to leave the money machine.

So, today the headline from Bloomberg reads: "Morgan Stanley's Purcell Says Board Backs Him as Firm Is Roiled" and instantly " based on my years of experience " I look for the second piece of information as holding the clue to reality.



March 30 (Bloomberg) -- Morgan Stanley Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Philip Purcell says he has the "unanimous" support of his board, a boast that isn't helping win the confidence of shareholders or quell demands for his resignation by former executives of the world's No. 2 securities firm. "The board came out unanimously in support of me as CEO," Purcell said in an interview in his personal conference room at Morgan Stanley's headquarters in midtown Manhattan. "We have a deep talent pool in total and in terms of succession."


The operative words then are, "boast;isn't helping win".

Usually, the reader can take the statements of an embattled executive and put them into the past tense because that's how these things usually work out. ;"We had a deep talent pool;" The only thing left is to pack the bags and call the driver.

Last evening I watched Cramer excoriate Purcell " even calling it "personal". Two things came to mind: (1) Cramer couldn't carry Purcell's bags (which says something because I'm no particular fan of Purcell), and (2) Wall Street loves to re-write history, which in the end makes it a real fantasyland where the ‘Big Tent' metaphor is appropriate.

To the rest of us, it's all entertainment. I suppose to the Russian economist Kondratieff, it would be part of the capitalist process of renewal. But to me, the whole affair speaks mostly to bear markets.

TH's and pundits are spending a lot of their ammunition and your time today showing charts comparing an under-performing MWD to its peer group, GS, LEH, BCS and MER. Once you are finished being entertained, have a serious look at the whole broker-dealer group.


286a.gif


Starting early March, along with the broad market, these stocks have run into head winds. I believe the down draft will take them all down from here. Not too far, mind you, because they are all trading in the 11 to 13 PE range, and the hyper-active M&A business ought to keep the cash register ringing in Manhattan.

Goldman Sachs and Lehman Bros have been outperforming the group in 2005, but they also are the only two broker-dealers that make the Cara Global Best 100 list on the basis of quality and value factors.

None of the group, however, have had a sterling year in the market. Over the past 52 weeks, MWD was actually down 5.6 percent, MER was down 4.8 pct, GS was up just 4.1 pct, LEH was up 10.7 pct and BCS was up 15.0 pct.


286b.gif


Given that the total market cap of this Fab Five is well over a quarter trillion dollars, the average return on invested capital in this industry group is not acceptable to any serious investor.

So if Humungous Bank & Broker can't cut the mustard for themselves and families, why do you think they can do it better for you?

On that point, I have been observing what amounts to tasteless examples of intellectual dishonesty as one after another money manager is being interviewed on television stating things like, "We saw all this bad stuff coming a month ago, so we went to cash" Liar, liar, house on fire!

If securities industry players can't own up to the truth, we ought to give them the respect they deserve. So, again, I say, "Liar, liar."

It's time the securities authorities start tracking these promotional comments. If Truth in Advertising were the law, many of these so-called professionals would be in crowbar motel, not prancing about on television.


I'll be on the road today visiting parents.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on March 30, 2005 07:39:19 AM | Category: Cara Today in the Market