One thing you ought to know about me is that I don't let anybody put me on a treadmill " even if they have no such intention, as I'm sure is the case with the reader here. I stopped doing that years ago when I decided I no longer wanted to get paid for services rendered.

Everything I write in this blog is without compensation and therefore without obligation. Still, it is an interesting question, so I'll try to answer.

Yes, I think the Chinese stocks are starting to roll over again, or did readers mistake my words in the articles I did from March 3 to 11.

At that point, I picked the stocks of the best companies in China and said they were 10 percent to 30 percent over-priced, but represented good value after a pull back. So now we're having a pull back. I told readers at the end of February we were going to soon have a pull back, and some bloggers got on my case.

On March 3, as part of the China series intro, I wrote: " Presently (1Q05) I recommend just 3 pct (portfolio holdings in China stocks), but if, as and when the global equity market has a shakeout, including China, I would position up to eight pct of my capital within the list of stocks I have given you today."

On March 4, re Sector 15 (Basic Materials), I wrote: "CHL (my #1 pick), presently at $15.90, is going to run into market resistance in the $16.50-17 range, and the price cycle appears to be weakening here, so I would wait before entering the stock. My accumulation zone would be down near $14.50."

About my #2 pick in China sector 50, CHA, I wrote: "At a current price of $37.87; I like the stock, ;but would outright buy it under $35." (Well, guess what, today CHA closed at $35.00, and no I'm not ready to buy. I'm just going to stand back and say, "What a helluva call in 11 days.")

Re China sector 10, oil & gas, my favorite, I started the March 4 article by warning: "China's major energy companies are as successful as any in the world. All of them are solid companies worthy of holding in your portfolio. Unfortunately, in 1Q05, they are all, in my view, too pricey to buy. In fact, the oil plays are about 15 percent over-bought today and the coal producer (Yanzhou Coal) is about 30 pct over-bought, as I see it."

Re China sector 20 (industrial goods/transport), on March 6, I wrote: "The railroad, Guangzhen Railway GSH), is the most financially/operationally stable of the four companies, and the best investment choice. Just don't expect it to make you a gazillion dollars in trading its securities if you are a buy-and-hold investor;.At Friday's close of $18.13, the market cap is $1.57 billion;. As a trader, I'd feel more comfortable if the stock had a pullback of 10 percent here, to get into my $15.50-$16.00 accumulation zone."

I cannot be more specific because I am not a registered advisor. I am what one reader " a securities industry professional -- (in a letter full of platitudes) called me yesterday, a "hobbyist" " albeit an experienced, informed and alert one.

So I offer my opinions, for whatever they are worth.

The intra-day trading charts of the FXI for the past week, complete with technical indicators, shows the roll-over. The FXI, as you know, represents 25 very high quality large cap China stocks:

The daily data chart of XFI also shows the roll-over.

My job as a trader is to stay on the right side of trend. To try to do that, I need to use all the tools at my command. At the end of the day, I add it all up and make a decision (and in this case, yell it to you on my blogger's squawk box).

Maybe I'm right; maybe not. But, again, at the end of the day, I will continue to do it as long as I believe some of you are learning something about capital markets. You see; the capital markets are my passion.

Other than opining that the equity market in China will go down, in a brief cyclical pull back, I don't know how far it (or anywhere else) will go down. I do set accumulation zone targets, and try to figure out when the stocks of companies I like get into that range whether I should be buying or not.

It's kind of like NASCAR race car driver Jeff Gordon said about going into turn 3 at Talladega Speedway: "I need eyes out of six sides of my head." And, then he has to try to figure it out when he gets there, every time he gets there.

So the bottom line is that I believe the equity markets have started to correct. I believe the correction will be a relatively fast one, once investors get to readjust PE multiples to account for the greater risks of higher interest rates. The market decline will not, in my opinion, be a secular bear.

As for trying to guess the course of action of Alan Greenspan, that reminds me of the cartoon in Barron's book of cartoons.

Joke in Barron's: Restless couple in bed, "Oh for God's sake, Henry " do you think Alan Greenspan is lying awake nights worrying about what you're going to do?

I kind of feel the same in reverse.

There is an incredible amount of "hot" money in the world " onshore and offshore. This money will flow this way and that way depending on the same numbers you see and I see.

As for the actions of Caribbean hedge funds in February, I don't have a clue. I have read some data that reports hedge funds to be increasingly under-performing the market though, despite their expensive research and possible ‘pillow talk' conversations.

I just have to worry about myself, and let my instincts and training guide me.

BCara@BillCara.com