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March 10, 2005
"Oil Prices to Fall Soon", Thur., March 10, 2005, 4:18 PM
Words. Blogging is all about words. Some of them even mean something.
For a while today, I felt like I was back on my broom. At 5:57 AM ET, I declared: "Oil prices are going to come off soon." Crude then fell $1.25 over a few hours, and I was thinking, you know what they say when you're good? "You're good!"
But do my words really matter?
Actually it was just yesterday that Andy wrote me to say, "Wow, you were right about the US equities. Last Friday's and Monday's price action was just a setup. How did you do that? How did you know? Everybody spent the weekend jumping on your case. In case you haven't noticed, I took all that jumping around as an indication that you're the center of the financial blogs and called you the "Blogfather of the Financial Blogs" at my blog."
It seems Andy was reading other bloggers try to slay The Wizard this weekend when I said things last week like, sell XOM, sell the oil drillers, sell Martha, sell Apple, sell stocks, sell bonds, sell USD, buy gold, and "Worry about a job".
I think the last point really got to a few of them, given that;well, you know.
So I had a few things to say about bloggers I wish I hadn't. What I do wish for though is for objective academians like the crew of Duke U. profs behind ThinkingBull.com to set up a blog rating panel among their peers across the country. They could all survey students and hold class discussions about this new form of network-modelled media, and point to the best, saving people a lot of wasted time.
This would be kind of like a (non-commercial) Morningstar for (non-commercial) bloggers.
You see, I want to be like PBS/NPR rather than Jerry Springer or Howard Stern. There is a market for all types I suppose.
In my case, I want to talk about the art and science of trading in hopes my readers can learn from my experience.
I want them to smile when I say, "So MSO has tumbled from $36 to $24 this week. Not a bad week's income for the bears, who took their cue from CNBC coverage and knowledge of the fact that Martha's friends were selling out on her. How about that MSO ex-Chairman Jeffery Ubben, who sold 1.24 million MSO shares @ $34.50 for a cool $42.7 million?"
Did I not tell my readers that insiders were setting up the market, and that My Martha was merely the "take-out" vehicle? That comes from experience, and observation and being able to recognize the cogent differences between analysis and synthesis.
And how about XOM dropping $20 billion in market cap since I pointed out the stock was a tad over-priced a week ago? But what's a billion here or a billion there?
Are you impressed that I can now say, "What a Saudi Prince can make, he can also take away. Meanwhile the U.S. Congressional leaders are telling you their chains are not being yanked. Well, I'm saying the proverbial chain is being yanked " every time CNBC sends one of their staff to the desert to ride on camels or whatever it is that CNBC staffers do over there, other than pimp the Prince."
You see, sometimes the words come easy when you're on the right side of the truth.
Today is a day, however, where I have probably ten topics to write about, but no spirit. Yesterday took too much.
Hospital doctors and nurses, and a few others, can imagine what I went through, so I'll leave it there.
But colon cancer in its final stages of attacking vital organs is not something you want to watch in the face of your mother, who between vomiting episodes is still struggling to smile.
"You know what I see in your face?" she said to me as she asked me to get close. "I see happy eyes."
Maybe life has this way of keeping everything in balance? You know, 'cold hands, warm heart'.
Being present at the birth of both my children, experiencing the shock and awe, I can tell you this experience is exactly the opposite.
It takes the words away.
P.S., Intel's mid-quarter update will lead to more synthesis than analysis. At 4:15 PM, INTC management announced that previously guided revenue and gross margins for the quarter are now moving higher. After-hours-trading indicates a higher price, for now. Tomorrow, Wall Street analysts will be patting themselves on the back for their phantom calls last quarter (but see mine), and next month they'll be denying everything. You see, it's 'same old, same old'. Intel's "Mid-Quarter Update" is just grist for the mill.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on March 10, 2005 04:01:17 PM | Category: Cara Today in the Market
