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March 3, 2005

A great day for Stelco

Today was a great day for Stelco (TSE: STE.A). Before the day had even started, I received the following letter from a reader:


I read the Court Monitor's 20th report, which was posted at (law firm) McCarthy Tetreault last night. My assessment is that this CCAA plan to get offers that would favour the debt holders has gone right off the rails. Management knows that they are subject to legal action by unions, pensioners, and shareholders if they accept any prevailing offers that are based on below-fire-sale valuations. The footnote by the monitor mentions that Stelco management are to meet in chambers with Judge Jimmy at 9:30 this morning. This will not be (was not) a public discussion. I imagine that Farley is looking pretty poorly after recently allowing an extension of CCAA in order to go over offers etc., only to find that Stelco is switching gears and planning to use the time to do a different (equity?) strategy. Meanwhile the clock is ticking with respect to timely disclosure of Q4 and annual financial results. Farley may take Stelco out of CCAA when finding out that Q4 numbers are as big as many expect. I think that this potentiality (exit CCAA) is the main reason for current speculative trading. A study (*) submitted to the court last year done by a U.S.-based steel expert stated that the value of Stelco was much more than C$5 a share. Current developments and demand suggest that his assessment may now undershoot the true value. If Stelco raises C$500m with equity, the dilution would only be a couple of dollars a share if there was an C$8 value given today (out of CCAA, 150 - 200mil 2004 earnings etc). This would still result in perhaps a $6 share valuation, after dilution.

(*) The court submission by the U.S. expert is listed and accessible at McCarthy-Tetreault.


Whatever happened in Judge's chambers, it didn't hurt the Stelco share price, which closed the day at C$4.00. What a ride!

And, now we've got until the end of March to have this stock in play!


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I know somebody who's going to be very happy.

It was a lot more fun watching STE.A today than witnessing that group-hyperventilate situation this afternoon at CNBC (Maria, Tyler and Bob were simply breathless over the prospect of $100 oil). And, the commodity pit traders were given their fifteen minutes to scream into the camera to play the greed card.

Nice. Not helpful for traders, but nice entertainment.

Oh yes, and the CNBC blond did her envy card thing from Riyadh, or wherever it is that Saudi billionaire Prince Al-Walid bin Talal bin Abdulaziz resides. Not a bad looking 300-room home the Prince lives in. I wonder what the poor people think of the place?

Given that the Prince's mother is Lebanese, maybe he could also use a couple of his $24 billions to resolve a few issues there.

Re CNBC, Bill Griffiths told us today that, and I quote, "There's every indication that at this time tomorrow, Martha Stewart will be a free person."

Nice. Not accurate, but nice entertainment.

Actually, Bill, "The New Martha" as CNBC now calls her, will be confined to house arrest into August. She is still a ward of the criminal justice system. And I question whether Christian-based, or other ethical advertisers are going to support a criminal who is still serving her time.

And, please CNBC, don't try to send me to The Donald for answers.

Like you all, I'll be watching his Apprentice tonight, for entertainment.

BCara@BillCara.com

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on March 3, 2005 04:57:58 PM | Category: Cara Today in the Market