2005-02-26 Report

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Bill's Portfolio:

Last week, I closed by saying that: "Your first concern going forward ought to be to preserve capital." Nothing's changed.

I wrote about Apple (NDQ: AAPL) and said that although people from Wall Street to Main Street are buying Steve Jobs' lemonade, I'm not so enthused about a one-trick pony (iPod music player) given the immense competition in the market place, particularly in light of this company's history of falling on its face at times, so I said I was going to defer to AAPL's market cap of $35.5 billion, and stay away.

A week later, the market cap has grown by almost another billion, but does that make me wrong? I don't think so.

You see; greed is not part of my make up. Over the years, I have watched too many pigs go to the slaughter house, which I suspect will happen in this case too, because, and I repeat, "The long-term AAPL chart looks like a reinvention of the 1999 Internet bubble."

Traders always have to look to risk/reward, and not simply try to be on the right side of the trend. That's because trends change; "What goes up, typically comes down, and in the case of AAPL, there is a serious mean reversion issue to consider."

Whenever the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank is in the process of tightening credit, there is always (always!) froth in the equity market, which like the real estate market forms bubbles here and there, just waiting to burst.

AAPL is one of those. MSO is another -- as we see below.

Last fall, with MSO at about $12, I spent a lot of time writing about "My Martha" and Wall Street didn't give a damn, it seemed, at the time. Actually ‘they' were buying up a lot of the MSO stock to wholesale it out to you this winter at a triple for them. Found money.

I love Martha; I resent what the ‘system' did to her too. But, MSO is not a person. It is merely a price. I loved it at $12, and I hate it at $36. Like the Bocelli-Brightman song, it's Time To Say Goodbye.

The bold truth is that many risk avoiding advertisers departed MSO magazines after Martha was sentenced to several months in prison. As Madison Avenue spinmeisters have worked with a few stock trading insiders to weave a web of intrigue for the day Martha leaves prison next week " how many hundred camera crews will be there to capture the moment (and I'm not referring to Japanese tourists at Niagara Falls) " this is just too much entertainment for one (non-inside) trader to bear.

Can't wait though for the second half of this Harlequin Romance to be written, putting My Martha into the clutches of The Donald and his media guru Mark Burnett. But isn't MSO all about earnings, or am I mistaken? Where's the beef, Susan?

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ETF:

The following ETF charts are for sectors 10 (energy: IYE), 15 (basic materials: IYM), 20 (industrial: IYJ), 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY), 30 (consumer staples: XLP), 35 (healthcare: IYH), 40 (financial: IYG), 45 (technology: IGM, IGV and IGW), 50 (telecom: IYZ) and 55 (utilities: IDU). They continue to show -- to me -- that the market is toppy, which to repeat myself, "is not to say the equity market will collapse here; just that I believe that buy-and-hold investors will not do well in 2005 from a Dow perched at 10800."

I continue to believe that the Philadelphia Oil Service Index ($OSX), right at multi-year highs, is over-bought. For a discussion of $OSX, as well as IYE, I leave that for the section on commodities because it's really all about oil price, isn't it?

A week or two ago, I said, "I'd be looking for the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ($SOX), presently at 427.73 to settle back about 4 percent to the 410 range." Well, I was quite wrong there, having not foreseen the GDP economic growth numbers rising to 3.8 percent, whereas I had been expecting a pullback to 3.1 percent.

The short-term trend now seems up for $SOX given that the recent low of 382.57 was higher than the previous cycle low of 350.91. Now we have to watch to see if the current level of 443.70 can close a week above 453.95, which is the previous short-term cycle high.

If the U.S. GDP is really going to sustain a growth rate of close to 4 percent annually, then the yield curve will grow rapidly, which will be great for the semi-conductor chip makers, terrible for bondholders, and good for the auto industry, and the aluminum industry, which are highly correlated.

I'm still unconvinced, however. So let's look closer at Intel (NDQ: INTC). At a Friday close of $24.09, I do see a move above $24.50 coming, but the $24.50-$25.00 range seems to be a resistance level, which would then lead to a pullback. The higher INTC moves into this range, the more likely that the $SOX (chip industry index) will set a new cycle high, which would be supportive of continuing high equity prices.

On the other hand, if INTC tops out at say $24.50 in the next week or two, which I think is probably 65 percent likely, then I believe the semi-conductors will lead the broad equity market south for a re-test of the 10,600 Dow support. If that level holds, then the broad market will try to try to crack the Dow 11,000, probably in a summer rally.

What I am saying here is that I believe the market is going to sidetrack this year, awaiting corporate earnings for the next couple quarters, and additional signs of economic growth, while the Fed carries out its job of removing capital market excesses.

So this is likely to be a rotating market, and that's always a good environment for Wall Street's spinmeisters, and for skilled traders, even if the time frames for the average hold period drops down to the four to eight week cycle, or less.

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Bonds:

Except for the 30-year U.S. T-bonds, there were more lower bond prices, and higher yields, this week. But that situation may be maturing.

From the Fixed Income (Bonds) Yield Table at Yahoo Finance, you can see that the 30-year U.S. T-Bond is now yielding 4.63 percent, which is down from 4.67 percent the prior week. As yields fall, bond prices rise, which has happened on the long bonds, which is an indicator that other U.S. treasury debt prices are likely to stop falling this week, which is not to say they are going to rally.

Nevertheless, it may be timely to cover shorts in TLT and other long-term bonds.

On the corporate side, it looks like short-term corporate debt is set to become a little more costly, as prices fall and yields rise. Yields on the 2-year AA Corporates closed the week yielding exactly the same 3.51 percent as the 2-year U.S. T-Notes, and no matter what anybody thinks, the two-year credit (government versus corporate) is not equal.

Getting closer though, as rising gold prices are trumpeting.

It's time for Congress to do a little of the same belt tightening as Greenspan has been practising. Else, gold is going to be over the moon in a couple weeks.

Yes weeks. Just like the price of coffee has been on a run.

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Commodities:

Speaking of commodities, the headline today reads: Soaring oil prices confound industry forecasters.

Being the main topic of interest, I thought I'd spend extra time here to review reasons why I believe the world will see $35 crude oil before $55 " even with the current price perched at $51.50-$52.00.

I make no bones about not being an oil analyst " at least not a professional one, which one could say is my saving grace. But I have something going in my favor and that just happens to be an understanding of the simple and irrefutable logic that the people who do in fact have the best knowledge of the oil business are not wasting their time playing the number Red 22.

Some of them of course, like the Saudi oil minister and T. Boone Pickens, have been amusing us with their game of ‘Let's play the CNBC audience' which adds to the interest level, but isn't going to make any money for you or me.

No, let's get serious about a serious subject: my old friends, the Gnomes of Zurich, have every intention of adding to their portfolio, which means of course their taking from yours and mine. The vehicles they use are the share prices.

So, if we are going to play this game " rather than have the game play us " let's start at square one.

In my database of the energy sector (GICS 10), I have 59 stocks broken into six sub-industry groups. These are the key objects of the (oil) game. They are the chess pieces, you might say.

Let's look at the stock charts for each group:

10101010 Oil & Gas Drilling Drilling contractors or owners of drilling rigs that contract their services for drilling wells.

Precision Drilling 10101010 Canada PD.TO PDS
Nabors Industries 10101010 USA NBR NBR
Noble Corporation 10101010 USA NE NE
Transocean Inc. 10101010 USA RIG RIG

10101020 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services Equipment manufacturers, including drilling rigs and equipment, and providers of supplies and services to companies that drill, evaluate and complete oil & gas wells.

Baker Hughes 10101020 USA BHI BHI
BJ Services 10101020 USA BJS BJS
Halliburton Co. 10101020 USA HAL HAL
Rowan Cos. 10101020 USA RDC RDC
Schlumberger 10101020 USA SLB SLB

10102010 Integrated Oil & Gas Integrated oil companies engaged in the exploration & production of oil and gas, as well as at least one other significant activity in either refining, marketing and transportation, or chemicals.

Petrobras Energia Part - Cl. B 10102010 Argentina PBE.BA PZE
Tenaris SA (ADR) 10102010 Argentina TS.BA TS
Woodside Petroleum Ltd 10102010 Australia WPL.AX WOPEF.PK
Petrobras (Petroleo Brasileiro) 10102010 Brazil PETR4.SA PBR
Husky Energy 10102010 Canada HSE.TO HUSKF.PK
Imperial Oil 10102010 Canada IMO.TO IMO
Petro-Canada 10102010 Canada PCA.TO PCZ
Suncor Energy 10102010 Canada SU.TO SU
Total SA 10102010 France TOTFn.PA TOT
CNOOC Ltd 10102010 Hong Kong 0883.HK CEO
PetroChina Co 10102010 Hong Kong 0857.HK PTR
ENI SpA 10102010 Italy ENI.MI E

10102010 additional list.

Royal Dutch Pete 10102010 Netherlands RD.AS RD
Statoil ASA 10102010 Norway STL.OL STO
Repsol YPF 10102010 Spain REP.MC REP
BG Group 10102010 UK BG.L BGR
BP plc 10102010 UK BP.L BP
Shell Transport & Trading 10102010 UK SHEL.L SC
Amerada Hess 10102010 USA AHC AHC
ChevronTexaco 10102010 USA CVX CVX
ConocoPhillips 10102010 USA COP COP
Exxon Mobil 10102010 USA XOM XOM

10102020 Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Companies engaged in the exploration and production of oil and gas not classified elsewhere.

Origin Energy Ltd 10102020 Australia ORG.AX
Santos Limited 10102020 Australia STO.AX STOSY
OMV AG 10102020 Austria OMVV.VI OMVKY.PK
Canadian Natural Resources 10102020 Canada CNQ.TO CNQ
EnCana Corp. 10102020 Canada ECA.TO ECA
Nexen Inc. 10102020 Canada NXY.TO NXY
Talisman Energy 10102020 Canada TLM.TO TLM
Nippon Oil Corporation 10102020 Japan 5001 NPOIF.PK
Tonen General Sekiyu 10102020 Japan 5012
Norsk Hydro ASA 10102020 Norway NHY.OL NHY

10102020 additional list.

Anadarko Petroleum 10102020 USA APC APC
Apache Corp. 10102020 USA APA APA
Burlington Resources 10102020 USA BR BR
Devon Energy 10102020 USA DVN DVN
EOG Resources 10102020 USA EOG EOG
Kerr-McGee 10102020 USA KMG KMG
Marathon Oil 10102020 USA MRO MRO
Occidental Pete 10102020 USA OXY OXY
Sunoco., Inc. 10102020 USA SUN SUN
Unocal Corp. 10102020 USA UCL UCL
Valero Energy 10102020 USA VLO VLO
XTO Energy 10102020 USA XTO XTO

10102030 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Companies engaged in the refining and marketing of oil, gas and/or refined products not classified in the Integrated Oil & Gas or Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders Sub-Industries.

Ashland Inc. 10102030 USA ASH ASH

10102040 Oil & Gas Storage & Transport Companies in storage and/or transportation of oil, gas and/or refined products. Includes diversified midstream natural gas companies facing competitive markets, oil and refined product pipelines, coal slurry pipelines and oil & gas shipping companies.

Enbridge Inc. 10102040 Canada ENB.TO ENB
TransCanada Corp 10102040 Canada TRP.TO TRP
El Paso Corp. 10102040 USA EP EP
Kinder Morgan 10102040 USA KMI KMI
Williams Cos. 10102040 USA WMB WMB

Any reader who thinks these illustrative charts represent equity markets normality or sustainability ought to be playing Vegas where I can assure you the odds are better.

Many of these oil stocks are up ten percent or more in a week. That's the sign of a melt-up. Look at Tenaris and Petrobras in Brazil, for example. Cape Canaveral. Rocket ship time!

It won't last.

Let's get serious for a moment.

In every game, like chess, there is a king " a leader, a general, an 800-pound gorilla, or whatever. In the oil game, the king is Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), and the decisions we traders make re XOM will factor into every other decision we make in the oil game.

As you know, a stock is merely a price. Our job as security traders is (1) to find a price we are comfortable with, and (2) ascertain the trend and cycle of the price other traders are comfortable with, so that we can buy or sell against their positions.

To help us in our analysis, we have technical, fundamental, quantitative and economic data to consider. In the case of XOM, there is just a single key factor that serves as the catalyst of its share price " and that is the subject of our discussion today, which is the price of oil.

Typically there are many factors to consider, but in the case of Exxon Mobil there is just one " the price at which they sell their production. Normally, a company's output is every bit as important as the selling price of that output, but in the case of Exxon Mobil, you may be surprised to discover that combined crude oil and natural gas output for 2004 grew by just one percent.

Given that the market capitalization of XOM has grown by 22.6 percent this month alone, which just happens to be in excess of $75 billion (if anybody's counting), logic tells me that traders are focused on the price of crude oil, and little else.

So just how much is this $75 billion growth in XOM's capitalization this month? Well, for that, we have to look at the entire oil industry. Ex-XOM, the entire Energy Sector (GICS sector 10) is valued today at $2.00 trillion, so this month's gain by XOM is equal to 3.75 percent of all energy companies except Exxon Mobil,

Looking just at the Integrated Oils, the industry ex-XOM is presently valued at $1.256 trillion, so this month's gain in XOM is worth 6.0 percent of the total value of all integrated oil companies ex-XOM.

In a word, unbelievable!

We could also look at the capitalization of the entire Dow 30 because $75 billion (XOM's growth in a single month) is as big as the total combined market cap of three (10 percent) of the Dow stocks, and bigger than 13 of them (over 43 percent!). If you don't believe it, here is the table.

And if you don't believe that the Dow 30 average would have been falling this week, and this month, without the enormous push up by XOM, then here is the proof of that. XOM, the Dow's biggest weighting, has grown over 26 percent YTD. But, look at the rest!

Can XOM sustain the $63.26 price? Well, it's trading at a PE of 17.61 (ttm), and I feel it should be trading in the 15.0 range, given the variability in the oil price. That would represent a possible pullback to $54 for XOM.

So, yes, traders may decide to keep the price of XOM going onward and upward, but the sledding gets tougher here unless the global economy really starts to move up a gear or two.

But that prospect would certainly bring some additional inflation with it.

This is a week that showed once again how wrong the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is " or misleading.

Commodity prices are indexed by the Commodities Research Bureau. The CRB index has done a turnabout a week ago Thursday, just as long bond yields took off to the upside, and bond prices collapsed. Last week the Producer Price Index (PPI) had its fastest growth spurt in six years, and CPI is always close behind. Then to our surprise, we were told that CPI grew by just 0.1 percent.

Last week I was saying, "significant capital is flowing out of bonds and into the commodity-price beneficiaries because investors are starting to get concerned about the big "I" " inflation." Then surprise-surprise, Uncle Sam says "Don't worry mon, be happy."

The people who are really happy, of course, are those Jamaican plantation owners. "Ya mon, d'ya see Blue Mountain coffee prices in the Big Apple? They're gonna have to call the place, the Big Bean now."

Coffee prices, in case you haven't noticed, have more than doubled since last summer.

It doesn't take much to set the commodity prices running in one direction or the other. Just one mention of the big "I" however and basic materials sector 15 starts to move up, and commodity speculators get into the game.

I wrote that last week, but the words ring true.

Two weeks ago, I had perceived further weakness to come into the CRB index because oil prices had been falling. Then oil prices turned north, with crude oil up about 5.1 percent this week to $51.49, with Financial Entertainment Television pointing you to over $60.

The question is; when does it make the cover of Time Magazine?

Any time now because I suspect the high price of the week has just been reached in this cycle, i.e., $52.00.

That's all it took for the CRB players to zip the index to a triple top breakout this week. Can it hold? Well, if you really believe in the accuracy of the CPI number, CRB can't hold these gains. If CRB does hold up, then the next CPI number (and probably the adjustment of last week's number) ought to be something to behold. And that, almost for sure, would mean that the Fed really squeezes hard, and equity prices come down with a thud.

So we are all going to be watching commodity prices this week.

Here's my guess: CRB, including oil, comes off here, but prices of the metals and gold continue north. Then the metals will peak, unless the economy really does have a global spurt, but gold keeps powering northbound.

I think gold is on its way now. Two steps up and one down. On the way to $475 this summer.

That's because I don't see Congress holding back on over-spending. I think the CRB speculators are putting their money behind a falling USD, and they know Greenspan can't squeeze too fast or else he kills equity prices (Dow 9000 anybody?).

So the place to be is in the goldminers.

And I don't see a summer vacation for the penny mining stock promoters this year. So be wary of the nonsense on the horizon. In that regard, the flow of b.s. has already started. Yesterday on ROBTV, I watched a so-called technical analyst recommend a 5 cent penny mining stock, actually telling the incredulous host (and the audience) that this company really does have a gold mine in Alaska. The breathless audience, I should say.

Anyway, the real base metal miners are continuing to move up on a major cash flow and earnings growth spurt because of higher metal commodities prices, which typically happens during economic expansion. A couple weeks ago, I alerted you to Inco (TSE and NYSE: N), and the stock has had a solid move higher, up another 2 percent on the week, with most of that coming Friday morning.

There are very few major base metals producers in the world, and a long cycle between discovery of a mine and subsequent production. In spite of a rather weak global economy, base metal prices have been very strong, and as the economy does look to me like it is gaining strength, metals prices are likely to continue moving north.

As base metals prices like copper are presently setting two-decade highs, it follows that the metal miners like Inco and BHP have excellent earnings, and rising share prices.

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Gold:

The goldminer stocks were slightly up on the week again. I have been recommending the goldminers, here and there, but waiting for the EUR to USD cross-rate to move up through 132.50. Presently it sits at 132.36, up on the week from 130.24, and still pointed in the right direction.

In fact, I say this is the week it blows right through 135 on its way to 140 and beyond in the next few months.

Partly, that's an acknowledgement that if OPEC is really going to set the oil price at $40 to $45 for the balance of the year, as the Saudi oil minister told us this week, then the oil producing nations are going to have to accept wooden nickels, or monopoly money. Anything, of course, except the good ol' USA Kudlow Greenback.

So, the Toronto Exchange listed goldminer ETF remains attractive. This is the iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index Fund, which trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD.

You may now want to be taking full positions in XGD, as and when the USD starts heading south again, crossing above the 132.50 rate with the Euro.

Notice, I did not include ‘if'. That's because the gold stocks will really start to move again here.

The interactive charts of the goldminers that trade on the NYSE are looking good.

List #1

List #2

List #3

Last week I recommended writing two Goldcorp July 12.50 puts (GG=SV) @ $0.70, and simultaneously buying the April 12.50 calls (GG=DV) at $1.20 " if you can get those prices " for a net income of $0.20. Goldcorp GG closed Friday at $13.69, up 2.3 percent on the week, which was not as good as Newmont or many of the other goldminers. Still, the 2 puts are each ahead by a dime and the call is up $0.35.

Now if the price of gold bullion starts rising rapidly, and the USD collapsing, I may go buy more GG calls, which is leveraging my capital, rather than buy the straight stock. Of course, Goldcorp is just one play in this sub-industry group.

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Forex:

A week ago, investors started to turn their attention back to the USD, but it stayed flat on the week, closing 83.52. This week the USD started to weaken once again, closing Friday at 82.65.

Remember, a week ago I said, "Here's where your gut feel has to come into play. Mine says that the USD is ready to fall quickly again, starting next week. At this point I think Larry Kudlow could stand on top of his CNBC desk with a megaphone and I don't think the Gnomes of Zurich are going to hear anything. They might laugh, but I think that, rather than get killed in the U.S. bond market, they'd rather have their size holdings in gold, or some other currency. Sorry Larry."

Bingo.

Now we'll have to see if I can stretch that winner into another.

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International Equities:

As to the global stock markets, let's have a look at the past week's activity through a snapshot of the interactive charts at Investertech.com:
(Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore)
(U.K., Germany, France, Italy)
(Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Australia).

Last week, the Economist did a ridiculous story about the Canadian Prime Minister Martin, referring to him as Mr. Blithers. This week, Canada laid it right on the line: no weaponization of space. That's what this is all about.

Next week, the Economist will probably be referring to Commie Putin, which is just more of the hot air to be expected out of Washington when they want to take everybody's mind off their own problems.

Look, I'm pro-America, as much as any foreigner could possibly be; but this constant show of disrespect for other peoples of the world has got to stop.

I have a friend, a PhD from Georgia " as in the USA and not the Caucasus region of the ancient kingdoms of Colchis and Kartli-Iberia, presently in dispute with Russia. My friend called me this week to say that the spin out of Washington is getting so bad he bought a short wave radio to pull in the refreshingly accurate and unspun CBC news from Canada.

I didn't mention that he best do that through his web browser.

Things in Canada seem to be looking up, at least in Alberta, home to the big oil fields, and British Columbia, home of the 2010 winter Olympic Games. But, back in Ontario, shareholders of Stelco (TSE: STE.A) got reamed on Friday by a judge (the idiot Farley) who ruled that (well let this irate letter I received say it for me);

"Can you believe this? Farley removes the two shareholder reps from the board and prevents them from trading in STE.a etc., thus locking out any significant volume moves before the board announces a deal. Look at the chart for Friday and how the stock price collapses AFTER the market closed. What garbage! Where is MRS or the OSC in all of this? I have no choice to hold fast and ride this out for whatever it is worth, but the lesson to me is to forget about the Canadian securities markets for speculative investment. I still don't see how Hap Stephen (Stelco restructuring officer) could have been advising the board on Algoma Steel's offer when he probably still holds the huge amount of shares he got from his/Farley's re-structuring of Algoma Steel a few years ago and where he still has recent ties to that company. No words from the court or the Monitor about how Algoma, on leaving the bid process, spouts off about the sad state of Stelco. Every effort has been made by the management and assisted by the courts to destroy shareholder value and discourage us holding the stock. It may have even been a set-up by Hap Stephen to see these guys join the board knowing they would be immediately removed and have their shares effectively frozen from trading by Farley. I am convinced that Farley and Stephen are trying to cover their tracks as it becomes increasingly evident that Stelco was never insolvent and this is a high-stakes game to hijack the assets of the company."

If the letter is accurate, I guess I don't get my car or the 1,000 shares of Stelco from Dad. :-)

My 2005 Dubious Feat Award, may go out to Judge Farley who has usurped the power of the Ontario Securities Commission in ruling on who can become corporate directors and be allowed to trade their rightfully owned securities. If this were a monthly award, it being February, Farley would have been a shoo-in.

All I can say, repeatedly, is that I have never ever seen such a bizarre situation in capital markets. All of this stuff started when the Canadian Deputy Prime Minister called on the Royal Canadian Mounted Police to investigate how she got screwed over by the Prime Minister, who wanted her out of the Stelco riding before the proverbial stuff hit the fan.

It's all tied in.

Books will be written. Lawsuits will be started.

And I thought we lived in a civilized society in this country.

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U.S. Equities:

A couple days ago, the Dow 30 took off like a rocket when the U.S. GDP number came in very high, coupled with a very low CPI number. Investor confidence is extremely high, as seen by the VIX and VXN index numbers. In my view, however, the latest Dow bull cycle is hanging by a thread on the coattails of XOM and DD.

Simply put, the Dow lift-off was a high-risk buy, and not likely to last more than a few days. What conservative long-term investors have to be seeking now is not capital growth, but preservation of capital.

Dow 10,842 could quickly become Dow 10,600, followed by Dow 10,400. This prospect seems to grow every time I observe an absence of TH discussion of important subjects like Dow earnings, and I can't remember the last time that serious subject was even broached other than by Bank of America Securities' very good chief investment strategist Tom McManus, who seems to have his wits about him.

I don't think Tom is going to be selling AAPL and MSO to too many of the bank's clients, which must be a comforting thought to the bank's management and board.

Alcoa (NYSE: AA), which is a major player in the basic materials sector, had a good Friday morning, which made up for a lousy Tuesday afternoon.

General Motors (NYSE: GM) had a great Thursday and Friday based on investor confidence that the economy just might be strengthening here.

You can do this table yourself by copying the following list of the Dow 30 stocks and entering them in the window for "Summaries" at Investertech.com.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG SBC UTX VZ WMT XOM

After you bring up the list, click on the Performance tab. To sort for the relative price performance for any recent period, you just need to click on the column header of the period that interests you.

Here is the table, and following that are the Dow charts from Investertech.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well.

(list one) (list two) (list three)

For each of the individual Dow 30 component issues, using Investertech.com, you can look at the different time frames from intra-day to monthly data charts, and see the technical indicators at the points where trends and cycles reverse.

AA

AIG

AXP

BA

C

CAT

DD

DIS

GE

GM

HD

HON

HPQ

IBM

INTC

JNJ

JPM

KO

MCD

MMM

MO

MRK

MSFT

PFE

PG

SBC

UTX

VZ

WMT

XOM

Here again is the 30-minute data chart of the Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Last week, I said, "If MRK and PFE were not up like a rocket on Friday due to the positive review by the FDA panel, the Dow would have closed down on the day, and, like Nasdaq, down almost 1 percent on the week." This week it was XOM as I wrote earlier.

What will it be next week as the circus comes to your town?

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Enjoy your weekend.

BCara@BillCara.com

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p.s., My parents are getting exceptional care, but discussing matters like hospice and cremation is not pleasant. Fortunately the nursing home flu epidemic is over and the shutdown was removed. The downside to that is that the telephone service man was allowed back in and he hooked up Dad's phone. Mom is past the point of being able to talk on the phone, and Dad is known in the place as The Bell Ringer, which tells you pretty much what he's been up to with the phone. His bell-ringing got so bad the staff had to move my parents to a room directly across from the nursing station, so they could legally remove his buzzer from his hands. That room had no phone until Friday. My brother, in making it easier for him to dial, put in speed dial. The phone set has three big buttons on top. Son #1, Son #2 and Son #3. Being Son #1, I get, let's say, my share of calls. It's a 4-hour return trip to the Lodge and I was there Thursday. I was there Monday. I was there Sunday. Then Friday, my phone rang, "Can you come now. Mom wants the Minister. She says she is ready to go now." Nobody said life was easy, but this is a challenge.

On a happier note, I look forward to Sunday's Oscar Awards, and in particular the performance of American wunderkind ("You raise me up") Josh Groban.