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February 4, 2005

U.S. Jobs Report today at 8:30am ET

Briefing.com offers an outstanding review of all key U.S. economic reports. Rather than listen to the TH spin on these reports, or the varied interpretations by business writers, try to spend a few minutes reading the objective background and analysis offered by Briefing.com. You'll be well served.

Also try to understand the true nature and importance of the most important of these reports, which are available at Yahoo Finance, and linked to actual statistical data published by government.

On the first Friday of each month, which is today, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics issues at 8:30am ET (a few minutes from now), what is called the Non-Farms Payroll Employment Report, or Jobs Report for short. The description at Yahoo Finance is just four paragraphs long.

The free Briefing.com review will take a few minutes more to read, but I assure you that once you do this a couple times for each report, you'll be an expert. Truly. You'll be about one person in 10,000, or less, that understands this material.

So, if say at 8 AM ET you review this two-pages of material, I say you will be surprised at the amount of spin you will see coming at you in the next few minutes from the TH's you usually watch to get your "information" on capital markets.

From the letters I receive, I know there are many successful people who read my blog. Getting good help is not a problem for them, but I think only now are they seeing how fortunate they are in having objective (non-commercial) advice and support.

Only now are they starting to really see how the ubiquitous selling machine on Wall Street has so deeply pervaded and affected the basic reality and common sense of capital markets.

Regardless of the costs involved, that charade must stop.

So this morning, if you happen to be watching CNBC discussing the U.S. January Jobs Report, for example, but you come armed with the two pages of data I listed above plus the actual line item report from the BLS, then put your feet up on the desk and get ready for a belly laugh.

You will see why I call this an entertainment show, and how dangerous it is for your wealth.

And, I'll come by later today (time permitting) with my own perspective on this particular Jobs report. It is going to be an important one because whenever you see the 3-Month-30-Year Yield Curve flatten and the Yield Spread narrow less than 250 basis points, you ought to know the economic situation is getting very worrisome. Presently its 222 bp, down from 267 bp a month ago, and still worsening by the week.

Jobs are needed and greater disposable income is necessary to push economic growth, so that the Yield Spread can get back to a healthy 300 bp.

As I stated a month ago, there is a possibility here (sometime in 2005) that the economy could flat-line or even (a long shot) could go negative. In such a case, the loss of personal wealth would be too horrible to contemplate.

So, let's all hope for an increase in January non-farm payrolls of 175,000 or more, which is the minimum needed to sustain a healthy economy. The consensus estimate is 200,000 with growth in manufacturing for the first time in five months. But, if the numbers are fewer than say 150,000, with a further cutback in manufacturing jobs, then all of us ought to become very concerned.


BCara@BillCara.com

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on February 4, 2005 08:07:26 AM | Category: Economics

Discourse

Well Bill, I see the jobs report came in at a healthy 146K jobs, I guess it's time to get worried. I also noticed they revised downward the past few months.

I think a recession is more likely than just having the economy flatline. But I'm not a professional, I just play one on tv. ;)

Posted by: pgriffis [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2005 10:16 AM [link]

Bill,

Your comment "In such a case, the loss of personal wealth would be too horrible to contemplate" - what are you hinting at here?

A few weeks ago I asked about depression vs recession but you weren't able to comment.

I'm not an advocate of the doom gloom mantra, but, from what I'm reading elsewhere indicates there is a depression scenerio lurking, and if this becomes reality, there would be a horrible loss of wealth.

Is this your concern? Depression?


P.S. - Great site.

Posted by: 1200GS [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2005 11:07 AM [link]