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February 16, 2005
Sandisk, Wednesday, Feb 16, 2005 08:08:04
Sandisk (NDQ: SNDK) is a trading idea I had in last week's "Week In Review". Long-term I like the stock, and feel it will move higher on its own merits plus within a positive environment for U.S. equities that is in my mind less certain.
The put write I recommended had a two-day gain of 37.5 percent. The stock itself is up about 7.0 percent this week, which is in my range of acceptable short-term trading gains. SNDK, which closed Tuesday at $26.44, after hitting an intra-day high of $26.57, could be sold up to $27 as there is a negative story potential re Lexar Media (NDQ: LEXR).
Lexar is another stock I like, but yesterday they started in trial vs. Toshiba where Lexar is suing Toshiba for purportedly stealing what they claim is patented flash controller technology, which Toshiba may have then used in developing products in collaboration with SNDK (such as the new MP3 player brought out pre-Christmas).
Lexar is in a deal with Kodak (NYSE: EK) for a flash memory, which is a story that you ought to be following.
I have told you about my new Kodak digital camera that is all the rage. Digital is in; film is out " big time! As a result, Kodak, Sandisk and Lexar are all winners.
A mid-term hold strategy might be to split capital between SNDK and LEXR and let the stories unfold as they may over the next quarter, knowing that LEXR's financial reporting problems (i.e., top-line revenue growth) are going to bear fruit in a washout in this quarter, and that a surprise out-of-court settlement with Toshiba would be a bonus for both SNDK and LEXR.
I like the whole story here because it is a big picture play for the long term, but it is also a short-term traders play, with exciting technology and legal developments being reported daily. I also like the large cap Kodak involvement, although EK did get dropped from the Dow 30 in recent years.
If you are new to this stock play, here is a link to some current info.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on February 16, 2005 07:59:04 AM | Category: 45 Info Technology , U.S. Equities
Up front, let me say i'm a SNDK owner. With that said, i'd like to make the case why SNDK deserves better than a 50-50 with LEXR long term...
1) royalties - SNDK hold IP for this product - 04 was $174m a 79% increase over 03.
2) verticle integration - SNDK owns the whole channel. they maintain a 70% captive vs. 30% non-captive supply of NAND. they control their costs on captive and use non to increase market share where they choose (willingly sacrificing what is a 37% operating margin anyway), LEXR is at the mercy of suppliers. they sell at a loss because SNDK sets the price, makes a profit - then watches LEXR bleed. http://www.fool.com/News/mft/2005/mft05020414.htm?source=eptyholnk303100&logvisit=y&npu=y
3) market share - SNDK is the undisputed retail market share champ in the NAND space across their product lines, and they have many major OEM partners to boot.
Sure, I'm rootin' for my boys, but LEXR just isn't a compelling story long term. SNDK pumps its significant royalty stream into R&D, starts price wars at will protected by their significant margins and just watches LEXR suffer. KODAK? Nice partnership unless you consider they lose money on each card they sell.
SNDK is looking over its shoulder, but its looking up at the likes of AMD, Intel and Samsung - not down at Lexar.
Posted by: billzer
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February 17, 2005 9:01 PM [link]