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February 18, 2005
Big Oils, Friday, Feb 18, 2005 07:51:25
Yesterday morning (6:56am) I stated: "Wall Street is pushing hard on the Oils, but many (CVX, XOM, COP and BP) appear to me to be over-priced and ready for a pull-back of maybe five percent or so in the next week."
Maybe I'm prescient, but on the day CVX was down 1.50 percent, XOM down 0.60 percent, COP down 0.30 percent, and BP down 0.44 percent. Then again the Dow was off 81 points, or "0.75 percent, but I didn't have an idea that would happen when I wrote my blog before leaving the city at 7am.
These 10-minute data charts of the four stocks show that intra-day traders made a ton playing the short side yesterday. At 7:30am today, the Dow futures are up +20, so maybe the oils will hold up before the long weekend, especially CVX and BP.
But then, that's getting into intra-day trading, which I keep pinching myself not to get into in this blog. So, I'll just say that if (the big ‘if') the integrated oils (GICS sector 10102010) have a bad day today, they are very likely to have a bad week next week " and that (possibly) would be the start of a cyclic reversal in prices in this important sub-industry equity group, and would fulfill yesterday's prophesy of a 5 percent pullback.
For now, the technical indicators on these stocks are still pointing up, however, so maybe I'm trying to see something in my crystal ball that isn't yet there.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on February 18, 2005 07:49:30 AM | Category: 10 Energy