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January 31, 2005
Yada yada Monday, January 31, 2005 06:11:11
I was planning to rush out today without blogging, but so much is happening that I couldn't walk past the keyboard without limbering up my mouse finger. To start, that huge noise you hear out of the northeast U.S. this morning is a collective sigh of relief that by and large the Iraqi elections went well. The USD is strong (at least for now) and gold bullion down about $2.50.
Lots of economic data is coming this week. With that mega-billion dividend by Microsoft (NDQ: MSFT), personal income should be up this week. So too will be the Fed Funds Rate, another 25 basis point raise, now to 2.50 percent for overnight loans between the U.S. central bank and commercial banks. At some point, mortgage rates will start to rise.
The key economic report will be Friday's Jobs data. Experts are forecasting about 200,000 net new jobs, which is moderately good. Actually it is barely enough to sustain minimal growth to the economy. A ‘good' number would be north of 250,000 net new jobs, including many in the important manufacturing sector. Until the new autos inventory is cleared from the sales lots, however, that is unlikely " but the time is getting close, which is why I recommend accumulating General Motors (NYSE: GM) at these levels.
And speaking about accumulating, how about that SBC-T deal? Now, that's no PIG of a deal. It's a good one. SBC is a stock I like. Traders can make some money long with SBC, but long-term investors ought to write long puts instead because I feel there is still some time to work out on this stock before it completes a long term bottom price cycle. I'll look at all the numbers (including fundamentals) and do a full report on SBC in the next week.
And BTW, another ringing of the bell " or ka-ching cash register " is in order, thank you. If you re-read my October 10, 2004 Trader Wizard report on AT&T.
AT&T Company (NYSE: T) Oct-08 close: $15.18 RECOMMENDATION: ACCUMULATE. Strategy: Write T=PC April 2005 Puts Strike@15. Price to be calculated at the market close October 8 (T=PC Apr-05 close @ $1.35).
Well, you don't have to wait til April to close those short puts; they closed Friday at 5 cents. That's a nice trade in three and a half months. But, I won't waste your time (or challenge your good humor) by calculating an annualized return.
Wow, buy it at 5 cents, and sell it at $1.35 " just do it in reverse!
And I published the report for all to see, putting my reputation on the line one more time, and yes, one more time I came through for you.
Ka-ching.
There's a TV commercial " I think it might be VISA " that says, "If life were only this easy!" Well, it is " the sell-side just makes it a lot harder than you need it. It's kinda like they set it up that you bang your head against the wall so much that when they come along to say "Your friendly advisor's here," you'll do anything to stop the pain.
Well, stick with me, and I'll teach you once and for all time to enjoy capital markets. It's not that simple; but it's also not hard.
BTW, I finished the (unedited) commodities section on the top banner. Like the other sections, it needs some work, but I'll get to it. Also, I took the advice of some readers to increase the font size (tell me what you think), and I'll go back over the image screen captures to try to clean up that problem as well.
Have a good day. I'm off to see my parents.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on January 31, 2005 05:31:01 AM | Category: Yada yada
