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January 7, 2005

Where are the Jobs?

The U.S. Department of Labor has reported that non-farm payroll employment increased by 157,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.4 percent, putting a positive spin on the data. One look at the data, however, leads to questions of veracity of the administration officials who produced the summary report. I say, where are the jobs?

The Jobs Report summary states, and I quote: "Both the number of unemployed persons, 8.0 million, and the unemployment rate, 5.4 percent, were unchanged in December." However, look at the table: Unemployment November = 8.020 mil and unemployment December = 8,047 mil.

Fact: Unemployment increased 20,000.

On to the next lie; The Report summary states, and I quote: "Total employment, at 140.2 million in December, was little changed over the month but was 1.7 million higher than a year earlier." However, look at the table: Employment November = 140.293 mil and employment December = 140.156 mil.

Fact: Employment decreased 137,000.

On to the next lie; The Report summary states, and I quote: "Both the civilian labor force, at 148.2 million in December, and the labor force participation rate, at 66.0 percent, were about unchanged from the previous month." However, look at the table: Civilian labor force November = 148,313 and December = 148,203 mil.

Fact: Total Labor Force decreased 110,000.

At this point, I want to ask, "Who wrote this report summary, Larry Kudlow?"

But I digress.

Sorry Larry, I noticed you were actually pretty mum today, saying apparently that the numbers aren't accurate or don't mean anything, or whatever it is you mumbled before launching into your treatise on the strength of the USD, which btw is not why you were on the CNBC show today.

Back to the Jobs Report, I found the numbers of persons now not in the labor force to be disconcerting. I guess if you want the numbers to look like there is a net increase in jobs, although the employment numbers have fallen, as you can see above, then it's easy if you merely state that hundreds of thousands of workers have just decided to quit society.

The BLS data shows that the number of persons not in the labor force in November = 76.109 mil and December = 76.437 mil, for an increase of 328,000 no longer seeking work. Hahaha!

Anyway, let's get to the 157,000 added jobs number that Bob Pisani told you at 12:08 pm ET "is a great number. It's a Goldilocks number. Not too hot. Not too cold."

Those words followed Pisani's segue, speaking to us from the NYSE, wearing his clown suit, saying that: "They got everything they wanted!" The "they" he was referring to happens to be you, me and other securities traders.

Bob doesn't get it.

Neither does CNBC economist Steve, who repeated this very same "good news" and "Goldilocks" story.

What I don't get is how these guys can stomach their job, or look themselves in the mirror. But, I guess it's just the money talking.

Secretary of the U.S. Treasury John Snow was given plenty of CNBC airtime to tell us that jobs and the economy are growing, in good shape, yada yada.

I for one want to puke.

Back to the jobs numbers " because that's what you want me to write about " Sorry, I just get distracted by all the noise.

The 157,000 increase in non-farm payrolls is comprised of 13,000 new jobs in the important goods-producing sector and 144,000 new jobs in the service-providing sector. Yippee, more people going to work for McDonalds.

But they are not going to work for Wal-Marts because the retail sector lost 20,000 jobs, which when you think about it is because there are actually fewer people working today than November, which means less money to spend, which means a slowing economy.

But again, I digress.

I have more important work to do than holding the administration and CNBC to account, so I'll just leave the actual table of data and let you take it further.


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You might start by telling your elected representatives to Washington that you see what's going on " and you just won't take it any more. But that's up to you.

I'm Canadian, and I've got enough on my plate today; Our government has just reported that Mad Cow has probably gotten into food products being sold for human consumption. So, I've got to make a trip to the freezer and check to see if I've got beef products to chuck.

Now, I really, really want to puke.

You know, if it's not one thing (no jobs), it's another (bovine spongiform encephalopathy).

I remember the day when the news was good, really good. I think it was back in the Sixties.


BCara@BillCara.com

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on January 7, 2005 01:00:04 PM | Category: Economics

Discourse

Bill,

Your the analysis is astute, the section at the end is a hoot.

Posted by: jessel [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 9, 2005 2:48 PM [link]