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January 13, 2005

Wal-Mart: Thursday, January 13, 2005 10:59:08

Tom Schoewe, Wal-Mart CFO, was on CNBC today as guest host of the Squawk Box show. After the close, Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott will also be interviewed on CNBC. They are leading the company fight against unfair critics and special interest groups that appear to be multiplying faster than rabbits. Today, in fact, management placed an open "Seeking Truth" letter in full-page ads in about 100 newspapers. They are fed up, and not going to take it anymore. Good on them.

Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) is, or should be, a core position (retail staples sector: GICS 30) in any well-structured portfolio simply on account of the successful track record of the Wal-Mart management team. Unless there is (highly unlikely) a fundamental change in the laws in jurisdictions where Wal-Mart operates, somehow preventing this company its continued rights to build in and dominate markets, the growth performance will continue.

That's not to say investors should not trade the stock. With an effective options strategy, investors can build positions in WMT faster than a simple ‘buy and hold' plan.

I believe in the ‘reversion to the mean' principle in trading seasoned large cap stocks. So, every time WMT reaches a cycle high " even with the stock's secular rising trend " I recommend writing out-of-the-money call options to take in the premium. If the stock does happen to be called away from me, I have already calculated my return on invested capital as being extremely high " unsustainably high " and I'll take the gain, and await the next down cycle. During the cyclic bottoming phase, I then write puts, which enables me to either take in the premium there, or have WMT stock put to me at even lower prices. And, if I believe a new bull cycle has started, or on extreme down spikes during a cyclic bottoming phase, I'll buy call options.

Over time, my intent with WMT is to add to my share position, and let the equity market place a value (i.e., price) on the stock. As long as the company remains financially strong, and the secular trend is rising in the stock, then I wouldn't spend any time listening to the Wal-Mart critics, or doing any fundamental analysis.

The company is a winner, despite what Jim Cramer believes and shouts at us whenever he sees an opportunity to tout Wal-Mart competitors. The WMT stock, in my opinion, offers an astute investor every opportunity to effectively trade for faster portfolio growth.

BTW, Cramer is not alone in criticizing Wal-Mart; when a company is its industry 800-pound gorilla, it's impossible not to have detractors. It's a competitive world out there.

BCara@BillCara.com

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on January 13, 2005 10:58:49 AM | Category: 30 Consumer Staples , U.S. Dow 30