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January 11, 2005
U.S. Equities: Tuesday, January 11, 2005 17:38:16
The Dow 30 lost 65 points today, which was strongly indicated in the pre-open equity futures.
It's always interesting to see where the leadership is " in each direction " on a volatile day.
The big down industry groups on a big down day were Steels, several of the Computer sub-industries (Peripherals, Storage, and Services), Semi-conductors, Biotech & Drugs, Retail (both Catalog and Grocery), and Construction & Ag Machinery. That cuts a broad swath through different GICS sectors, and includes some heavyweight industries.
On the upside today were Precious Metals and a bunch of lightweight groups. Some of the important Oil groups had been in the top ten earlier in the day, but later sagged.

All eyes are on Earnings Season, which kicked off today with Dow component Alcoa (NYSE: AA) up first in the pre-open. After Alcoa reported that profit fell eight percent in spite of higher selling prices, the AA shares fell 2.3 percent. Management said their problems were due to higher costs of raw material, energy and interest rates plus decreased production at its Quebec aluminum smelter.
After the close, Intel (NDQ: INTC), another Dow component, beat earnings estimates (33 cents to 31 cents), which will be heavily played. But analysts tonight will be looking over the margin decline and the guidance of possible revenue growth (YoY) for 1Q05. Major Intel competitor Advanced Micro (NYSE: AMD) warned today that the first quarter will not be good. Subsequently, their stock got hit $5.27, down 26.2 percent on the day.
The jury's out.
The big story today was the complete collapse of Taser International (NDQ: TASR). I've spent too much time on this already. You know I like the company and have been watching for a timely entry point. But, amazingly, TASR got hammered a further $5.95 or 29.7 percent today. TASR is already down to $14.10. On December 30, TASR hit it's high of $33.45, so it's down 57.8 percent in just eight trading days!
Is Taser finished? One might think so, but the selling started on the first day of 2005, so I am going to presume it was motivated by profit taking. You know, sell your keepable losers in December and your over-priced winners in early January. In both cases, investors tend to come back into these former holdings. Only a fundamental change in the corporations involved could alter that decision.
Taser has not changed. My feeling (it's pure speculation) is that Wall Street is chopping TASR down to size before they buy back in. Investment analysts know a solid growth situation when they see it. Taser has for sure been walking the talk.
But " and there usually is a but " something has happened in the past couple days, and the public is just getting the point for the first time. Taser has competition. There are two other manufacturing firms that are out competing for stun gun orders from the same law enforcement agencies. That is news to most of us.
So first, the bad news litany I told you to expect " possible deaths, safety issues, unreasonable price multiples, insider sales, illegal accounting, SEC investigations, and so forth " has now been followed with something new: maybe Taser really doesn't own its market? Maybe it has competition?
Who knows " I don't, but I do know that Wall Street is going to tell us.
Cramer interviewed Law Enforcement Associates tonight, and their rep says they will unveil their stun gun in March. This is a Bulletin Board stock.
Also on the CNBC Cramer show with him was the Stinger Systems CEO, another Taser competitor, who says he has sued Taser for saying he doesn't have a stun gun. Arguably he doesn't. His product will also come out later this year.
But the whole deal seems almost farcical when the Stinger CEO challenged Taser in a stun gun duel at 31 feet.
I love the market competition. I love the stun gun technology. Now we have to see which of these companies can best walk the talk.
I think I'd hold off a day or two in writing those TASR Feb puts. I'm not interested in using that time to hear what Wall Street is going to tell me, or the SEC with respect to their investigation, but I definitely want to see how many police chiefs that Stinger and Law Enforcement Associates can pull into their corner.
In the meantime, I deliberately left out the ticker symbols for the Taser competitors because until they actually put something real behind their stun gun claims, and they may, I decided to let readers (those who are interested) to do their own research.
For the most part though, I really have no interest in my blog in getting into small cap issues.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on January 11, 2005 05:38:31 PM | Category: U.S. Equities
