« Bill Cara's Trading Floors | Main | Bill Cara's Merry Christmas & Happy New Year Greetings »

December 24, 2004

The Value of Value Line Research

Armed with freely accessible (i) Value Line's charts of the Dow 30 stocks, (ii) Yahoo!Finance's sector, industry and group structured Industry Center, and (iii) a technical charting service like Investertech, which displays multiple technical indicators in multiple time horizons across a sector, industry and group spectrum, the independent buy-side investor can effectively cease listening to the sell-side of Wall Street to get investment advice.

If you are active in the market, I believe you can afford a full Value Line subscription, which covers 1700 different companies. But, if not, I recommend you visit your local library to review this material, or just use the free Dow 30 reports and the Yahoo!Finance website for the industry browser.

If you print out the weekly reports on all the 30 Dow stocks as they get updated, and keep a hard copy file, you will find incredible value there.

Over time, you will see that buying the stock of a good quality company that Value Line Research recommends -- one that is the industry leader in its field -- is something you ought to do whenever its price gets depressed, which might occur every couple years (or months).

And regardless how good these companies are, you have to recognize that stock price is something different than the company's intrinsic value, or what some people call "fair value" or "normal value".

Often, every couple years (or months), almost every stock price gets out of line on the upside and a point is reached where it is my view you ought to take profits (preferably in a tax deferred account).

Check to see which industry competitors of the 800-pound gorillas have better fundamentals and more attractive stock metrics (like price to earnings, etc.) Then, if you don't have a premium subscription to Value Line, go the local library and photocopy the VL report page for that company.

In time, your hardcopy investment binder will grow, and your investor awareness (investor IQ) will grow.

You'll find that your self-confidence grows as well when it comes to actively managing your portfolio.

You'll find it easier to buy at the bottom, when the media and Wall Street is negative about certain good quality stocks, and you won't hesitate to sell your positions when it becomes apparent to you that those stocks are over-priced. You'll buy them again soon because they are good quality companies, but you'll just wait until you feel more comfortable with their stock prices.

I really urge all independent investors to start today to set up a hard-copy file of Value Line's free reports on each of the Dow 30 components. To make the task easier to maintain, I listed below all the dates these reports were last published and the dates the next reports are expected to be available.


Value Line Reports for The Dow 30


By Alpha List: Company (Ticker)/ Last/ Next/ Industry



3M Company (MMM)/ Aug-20/ Nov-19/ Feb-18/ Chemical (Diversified)

Alcoa Inc. (AA)/ Oct-22/ Jan-21/ Apr-22/ Metals & Mining (Div.)


Altria Group (MO)/ Nov-05/ Feb-04/ May-06/ Tobacco

Amer. Express (AXP)/ Aug-27/ Nov-26/ Feb-25/ Financial Svcs. (Div.)

Amer. Int'l Group (AIG)/ Nov-05/ Feb-04/ May-06/ Financial Svcs. (Div.)

Boeing (BA)/ Sep-24/ Dec-24/ Mar-25/ Aerospace/Defense

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)/ Oct-29/ Jan-28/ Apr-29/ Machinery

Citigroup Inc. (C)/ Aug-27/ Nov-26/ Feb-25/ Financial Svcs. (Div.)

Coca-Cola (KO)/ Nov-05/ Feb-04/ May-06/ Beverage (Soft Drink)

Disney (Walt) (DIS)/ Aug-20/ Nov-19/ Feb-18/ Entertainment

Du Pont (DD)/ Oct-22/ Jan-21/ Apr-22/ Chemical (Basic)

Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)/Sep-17/ Dec-17/ Mar-18/ Petroleum (Integrated)

Gen'l Electric (GE)/ Oct-15/ Jan-14/ Apr-15/ Electrical Equipment

Gen'l Motors (GM)/ Sep-03/ Dec-03/ Mar-04/ Auto & Truck

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)/ Oct-15/ Jan-14/ Apr-15/ Computers/Peripherals

Home Depot (HD)/ Oct-08/ Jan-07/ Apr-08/ Retail Building Supply

Honeywell Int'l (HON)/ Oct-29/ Jan-28/ Apr-29/ Diversified Co.

Int'l Bus. Mach. (IBM)/ Oct-15/ Jan-14/ Apr-15/ Computers/Peripherals

Intel Corp. (INTC)/ Oct-15/ Jan-14/ Apr-15/ Semiconductor


Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)/ Sep-03/ Dec-03/ Mar-04/ Medical Supplies

JPMorgan Chase (JPM)/ Aug-27/ Nov-26/ Feb-25/ Bank

McDonald's Corp. (MCD)/ Sep-10/ Dec-10/ Mar-11/ Restaurant


Merck & Co. (MRK)/ Oct-22/ Jan-21/ Apr-22/ Drug


Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)/ Aug-27/ Nov-26/ Feb-25/ Computer Software/Svcs


Pfizer, Inc. (PFE)/ Oct-22/ Jan-21/ Apr-22/ Drug

Procter & Gamble (PG)/ Oct-08/ Jan-07/ Apr-08/ Household Products


SBC Communic. (SBC)/ Oct-01/ Dec-31/ Apr-01/ Telecom. Services


United Technol. (UTX)/ Oct-29/ Jan-28/ Apr-29/ Diversified Co.


Verizon Communic. (VZ)/ Oct-01/ Dec-31/ Apr-01/ Telecom. Services


Wal-Mart Stores (WMT)/ Aug-13/ Nov-12/ Feb-11/ Retail Store


By Report Date: Company (Ticker)/ Last/ Next/ Industry


Wal-Mart Stores (WMT)/ Aug-13/ Nov-12/ Feb-11/ Retail Store

3M Company (MMM)/ Aug-20/ Nov-19/ Feb-18/ Chemical (Diversified)

Disney (Walt) (DIS)/ Aug-20/ Nov-19/ Feb-18/ Entertainment

Amer. Express (AXP)/ Aug-27/ Nov-26/ Feb-25/ Financial Svcs. (Div.)

Citigroup Inc. (C)/ Aug-27/ Nov-26/ Feb-25/ Financial Svcs. (Div.)

JPMorgan Chase (JPM)/ Aug-27/ Nov-26/ Feb-25/ Bank

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)/ Aug-27/ Nov-26/ Feb-25/ Computer Software/Svcs

Gen'l Motors (GM)/ Sep-03/ Dec-03/ Mar-04/ Auto & Truck

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)/ Sep-03/ Dec-03/ Mar-04/ Medical Supplies

McDonald's Corp. (MCD)/ Sep-10/ Dec-10/ Mar-11/ Restaurant

Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)/Sep-17/ Dec-17/ Mar-18/ Petroleum (Integrated)

Boeing (BA)/ Sep-24/ Dec-24/ Mar-25/ Aerospace/Defense

SBC Communic. (SBC)/ Oct-01/ Dec-31/ Apr-01/ Telecom. Services

Verizon Communic. (VZ)/ Oct-01/ Dec-31/ Apr-01/ Telecom. Services

Home Depot (HD)/ Oct-08/ Jan-07/ Apr-08/ Retail Building Supply

Procter & Gamble (PG)/ Oct-08/ Jan-07/ Apr-08/ Household Products

Gen'l Electric (GE)/ Oct-15/ Jan-14/ Apr-15/ Electrical Equipment

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)/ Oct-15/ Jan-14/ Apr-15/ Computers/Peripherals

Int'l Bus. Mach. (IBM)/ Oct-15/ Jan-14/ Apr-15/ Computers/Peripherals

Intel Corp. (INTC)/ Oct-15/ Jan-14/ Apr-15/ Semiconductor

Alcoa Inc. (AA)/ Oct-22/ Jan-21/ Apr-22/ Metals & Mining (Div.)

Du Pont (DD)/ Oct-22/ Jan-21/ Apr-22/ Chemical (Basic)

Merck & Co. (MRK)/ Oct-22/ Jan-21/ Apr-22/ Drug

Pfizer, Inc. (PFE)/ Oct-22/ Jan-21/ Apr-22/ Drug

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)/ Oct-29/ Jan-28/ Apr-29/ Machinery

Honeywell Int'l (HON)/ Oct-29/ Jan-28/ Apr-29/ Diversified Co.

United Technol. (UTX)/ Oct-29/ Jan-28/ Apr-29/ Diversified Co.

Altria Group (MO)/ Nov-05/ Feb-04/ May-06/ Tobacco

Amer. Int'l Group (AIG)/ Nov-05/ Feb-04/ May-06/ Financial Svcs. (Div.)

Coca-Cola (KO)/ Nov-05/ Feb-04/ May-06/ Beverage (Soft Drink)


When each new Value Line report is published, you ought to read the commentary, study the facts, and observe the quantitative trends (revenue, earnings, cash flow, dividends, PE multiples, hi-low price ranges, institutional buy/sells, etc).

Be sure to study the company versus its industry performance: After you have a thorough understanding of each of these Dow 30 blue chip companies, then go to the Yahoo!Finance Industry Center for its Industry, and begin to study how each company and its stock price compares to that of its competitors.

Only after you have a sense of what macro factors are important to each of the Dow 30 company operations and share prices (such as interest rates, commodity prices, labor costs, industrial or consumer demand, forex rates, etc), and how they compare to their industry group, industry and sector, you can then turn to a study of the price charts at, for instance, Investertech, or a service similar to it.

For a basic understanding of the art and science of technical analysis, you can go to Equis, a Reuters company, for the Introduction and the Reference pages for each of the popular technical indicators and line studies. You will do well to understand the various technical studies on the Investertech charts, such as RSI, CCI, DMI, Stochastics, and MACD.

As stock prices ebb and flow in a variety of trends and cycles, you will begin to understand that these dynamic patterns are the result of capital market relationships that persist over many years. As the manager of your personal capital, your mission is to increase wealth, and you will best do that by always staying on the rest side of various price trends.

Over time, by studying the specific information presented in this article, following my simple research protocol, I believe any independent investor will have gained an understanding of how equity markets operate, and how to use them to increase your wealth.

In my view, everything else you read or hear in the financial marketplace is either much less important to the information I present here or is irrelevant. I not only believe that, I have practised this discipline for years, I consistently beat the best Wall Street strategists, and I share the information freely with my readers.

Should the sell-side ever voice exception to my opinions, I would offer to compete, apples to apples (subject to independent audit) against the public buy-hold-sell recommendations of all top Wall Street broker-dealers, over a one or two-year period.

I'd love that challenge.

Not only that, in order to prove my point that Wall Street broker-dealers materially misrepresent their value as investment advisors, I'll even represent that I will produce the top-rated total return performance of the group, and I'll pay a penalty of some sort should I fall short of that goal.

My statement is not so much based in self-regard (since I know that I make a lot of mistakes, often by the hour) as it is in my complete lack of respect for the sell-side. And, this is something I know about, because I used to be on that side of the table. If you are looking to them for investment advice, these people are dangerous.

The public does not need advice from sales persons. Independent investors need only to learn how to invest on their own. Computers, which completely disintermediate the sales person, can do the rest.

Because of blatant conflicts of interest, and the dubious costs embedded in sell-side recommendations, many individual independent investors like me can easily beat the typical Wall Street performance.

Moreover, in order to drive this point home, I will soon manage an openly displayed portfolio consisting solely of Dow 30 component stocks (and the put and call options on those stocks), tracked daily against the recommendations of the best Wall Street broker-dealers. In the interests of full, true and plain disclosure, this portfolio will be published on this website, and will be free for syndication by any publisher.

If I can't cut it, let the world know.

In practical terms, what may take some time to set up is an independent system for recording specific Wall Street buy-hold-sell recommendations. I'm open to suggestions.

So, in conclusion, I'm saying that the tools you need to successfully manage your portfolio are available free on the Web " mostly from Yahoo!Finance and Value Line " plus, like other students of the market, having an open but inquisitive mind.

BCara@BillCara.com

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on December 24, 2004 01:28:10 PM | Category: Value Line Research